| Bulk commodities include energy commodities,basic raw materials,agricultural and sideline products and other categories.As an important economic lifeline,commodities have a direct impact on the national economy and people's livelihood.Oil is an important strategic material,which is related to a country's security strategy.It is also an important source of income for oil-exporting countries and affects the foreign exchange expenditure of importing countries.Under the background of commodity financialization,crude oil futures become the largest variety in commodity futures market.In the new period,the listing of China's crude oil futures will,to some extent,affect the international crude oil trade pattern.In addition,as crude oil prices are always in constant fluctuations,the ups and downs of oil prices in the context of economic globalization and the financial crisis occurred in the context of more practical research significance.As far as China is concerned,with the economic development,the increasing demand for crude oil and the increasing dependence on foreign crude oil,China's annual average daily crude oil imports reached 8.4 million barrels in 2017,becoming the world's largest importer of crude oil.Although China is a big oil consumer,it has been lack of voice in international crude oil pricing.The drastic fluctuation of oil price will seriously affect the healthy development of China's economy.Therefore,it is more urgent and necessary to study the factors that affect crude oil price changes.In this paper,based on the recent data of crude oil price,the future trend of crude oil price is predicted from the factors affecting crude oil price changes.Through reading and sorting out the original literature,we can find that the general view is that crude oil is a scarce commodity,and has political and financial attributes.The factors affecting crude oil price mainly include basic supply and demand,crude oil futures price,geopolitical situation and so on.In addition,the dollar price,new energy development,special physical and geographical events will also affect the change of crude oil price.This paper analyzes the historical trend of the international crude oil price.by verifying the correlation between the changes of the factors mentioned above and the changes of the oil price,it is found that the formation of the crude oil price follows the price law of general commodities and has its own characteristics.The main factors influencing the changes of the oil price have not changed greatly,but the conditions of each factor are different due to the development of the times.In addition,the formation and fluctuation of crude oil prices can be roughly divided into four stages,is currently in a new stage based on supply and demand,gradually expanded by the financial impact.In this period,if we want to predict the price of crude oil reasonably,we need to master the basic laws that affect the change of crude oil price,and make a reasonable judgment based on the grasp of the main contradictions and the latest news of relevant influencing factors.Taking WTI crude oil price as an example,this paper selects several indexes such as US dollar index,non-commercial long-term holding capacity,oil output,oil consumption,drilling rig operating rate and so on,and makes a simple selection based on relevant historical data from 2006 to 2017,then forecasts the crude oil price trend by using relevant statistical models.According to the correlation analysis of influencing factors of oil price,the role of financial factors is prominent.On this basis,VEC model forecast results show that the 2018 WTI crude oil price forecast value fluctuates between us $ 62 and us $ 81 per barrel.Combined with subjective judgment analysis,that is,considering the 2018 total demand continues to grow to support oil prices,new energy vehicle development is difficult to shake the increase in crude oil demand,unconventional oil and gas development and OPEC production will make crude oil supply and demand basic balance,the United States dollar interest rate rise on the downward pressure on oil prices,etc.,this paper argues that 2018 crude oil prices will maintain a slight increase in the channel of narrow fluctuations,prices in the range of $ 60 ~ 75 / barrel,investors should adhere to a sound investment attitude,pay close attention to the situation of crude oil reserves,energy development and application of the future situation,the linkage effect between the international crude oil futures market,and on this basis pay attention to geopolitical emergencies.In addition,China's crude oil futures have been listed,because the study of international crude oil price fluctuations for crude oil futures pricing and futures market operation has certain reference significance,China should sum up the oil price fluctuations,learn from the experience and lessons of other international crude oil market construction,to ensure the smooth and orderly operation of China's crude oil futures market,improve the international influence of "RMB oil",so as to improve the whole Asia-Pacific crude oil pricing system,better reflect the situation of crude oil supply and demand in the Asia-Pacific region.At the same time,the energy sector should strengthen the monitoring of crude oil price influencing factors of data changes,to form a certain expectation of oil price changes,so as to strengthen cooperation with important oil producing countries,reasonable control of crude oil commercial inventory,to avoid energy security crisis,and seize the opportunity brought by the "One Belt One Road" strategy,and actively along the oil,natural gas and other energy commodity reserves,production are located in the forefront of the world countries to carry out commodity transactions. |
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