| In September 2020,General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality at the general debate of the 75 th United Nations General Assembly.Our country aims to take more responsibility in solving the climate problem.The carbon emission trading system is an important way to achieve my country’s carbon neutrality goal.In December2017,the national carbon emissions trading market(Hereinafter referred to as the National Carbon Trading Market)was officially launched.In January 2021,my country issued the“Administrative Measures for Carbon Emission Trading(for Trial Implementation)”,marking a new stage in the construction and development of the national carbon trading market.In this context.Research on the trading price of carbon emission rights(hereinafter referred to as the carbon trading price)has certain practical and theoretical significance.This article takes five carbon trading pilot projects in my country as the research object.Research is carried out from three aspects: the volatility of carbon trading prices,influencing factors and predictions.Regarding the volatility of carbon trading prices,this thesis establishes a GARCH family model to analyze the volatility characteristics of carbon trading price returns.The empirical evidence shows that the five carbon trading pilots studied in this paper all have the characteristics of volatility clustering,and the volatility is relatively long.Among them,the Shenzhen carbon trading market has the longest volatility.Among the five carbon trading pilots,only the yield of the Guangdong carbon trading market is positively correlated with risk,and there is no risk premium in the other four pilots.There is still asymmetry in the volatility of Guangdong carbon trading price yield.The asymmetry of the other four pilots is not significant.In terms of volatility characteristics,the Guangdong carbon trading market has the highest degree of development.In terms of the influencing factors of carbon trading prices,this thesis selects variables from the three perspectives of macroeconomics,energy prices,and weather conditions to analyze the impact on carbon trading prices.Energy prices and macroeconomic factors have a significant impact on carbon trading prices,while weather conditions have an insignificant impact on carbon trading prices.Among them,the price of natural gas has the most significant impact on the price of carbon trading,followed by the price of coal,and finally the level of industrial development.Natural gas prices,industrial indexes and carbon trading prices are negatively correlated,and coal prices are positively correlated with carbon trading prices.In terms of carbon trading price prediction,this thesis introduces the BP neural network model on the basis of the GARCH model,and constructs a GARCH-BP combination model to predict and analyze the rate of return of carbon trading prices.Through the comparative analysis of the prediction accuracy of the GARCH model and the GARCH-BP combined model,it is found that the prediction effect of the GARCH-BP combined model is better and the fitting value is higher.This article demonstrates that the GARCH-BP combination model is a more effective model for predicting the rate of return on carbon trading prices.Large fluctuations in carbon trading prices will increase the uncertainty of companies’ emissions reductions,affect their production decisions and their motivation to participate in carbon trading,and hinder the smooth realization of my country’s carbon neutrality goals.Therefore,this article proposes to establish and improve the policy control system of the national carbon trading market,accelerate the start-up and operation of the national carbon trading market,scientifically formulate the carbon allowance allocation mechanism,and innovate and develop carbon financial derivative products.It is expected to be the online trading of the national carbon trading market.,Stabilize carbon trading prices and contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. |
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