| In recent years,as China’s urbanization process accelerates and the gap between urban and rural areas continues to widen,breaking down the barriers of the urban-rural dual structure and promoting coordinated regional development is currently one of the important ways to resolve the major urban-rural conflicts in China.Integrated urban-rural development is the main goal of promoting integrated urban-rural development and achieving urban-rural co-prosperity.In the process of rapid urban development,constrained by its limited resource carrying capacity,high-carbon and crude development model,imperfect governance model,unreasonable industrial structure and fragile ecological environment,rural resources are gradually eroded,and the contrast between rural decay and urban prosperity is obvious,leading to imperfect integrated urban-rural development,which poses a serious challenge to China’s achievement of sustainable development goals,and it is of urgent practical importance to promote integrated urban-rural development in a sustainable and efficient manner.This paper aims to explore the low-carbon development model of urban-rural integration in a more systematic and comprehensive manner,with the help of the concept of low-carbon development,with a view to providing a scientific basis and valuable reference for the formulation of national urban-rural development policies in the future.Taking Xining as the research object,the theoretical basis of sustainable development theory,urban-rural integration theory and complexity science theory,the entropy value method,coupled coordination degree model,grey prediction model and Pearson correlation analysis are used to quantitatively analyze the current situation,development type,development trend and development influencing factors of urban-rural integration and low carbon development in Xining from 2010 to 2020,and to thoroughly study the relationship between urban-rural integration and low-carbon development in the process of urban development.The main conclusions reached are:(1)From 2010 to 2017,the comprehensive level of low-carbon development in Xining showed a rising trend year by year,and from 2017 to 2020,Xining entered a solid development stage of low-carbon development;from 2010 to 2020,the comprehensive level of urban-rural integration development in Xining changed significantly and showed a fluctuating upward trend;from 2010 to 2020,urban-rural integration and low-carbon development in Xining showed a coordinated development.(2)The coupling and coordination degree of urban-rural integration and low-carbon development in Xining from 2010 to 2020 shows an increasing trend year by year,gradually increasing from 0.2145 in 2010 to 0.3730 in 2020,an increase of about 75%;the years from 2010 to 2015 belong to the state of moderate disorder,and the years from 2016 to 2020 belong to the state of mild disorder.The relative development degree as a whole is in the interval of simultaneous development of the two,with only 2014,2016 and 2020 not being in that interval.(3)Based on the coupling coordination degree of urban-rural integration and low-carbon development in Xining City from 2010 to 2020,the development situation from 2021 to 2035 is predicted.The coupling coordination degree will increase from0.385 in 2020 to 0.879 in 2035,and the type of coupling coordination between urban-rural integration and low-carbon development in Xining will gradually develop from near disorder to benign coordination in the next fifteen years.(4)Through correlation analysis,urban-rural integration and low-carbon development in Xining are significantly positively correlated and belong to a synergistic development model.Combined with the current development status and characteristics of Xining,the new energy optimization model,the industrial organization optimization model and the industrial cluster optimization model will help promote urban-rural integration and low-carbon development in Xining. |
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