| Climate issue is an important obstacle to the sustainable development of human economy and society.Extensive mode of production for a long time has caused a large amount of energy consumption,leading to serious problems such as public health,environmental pollution and energy shortage.As the world’s largest carbon emitter and energy consumer,China is committed to mitigating global climate issues and setting carbon reduction targets and a series of emission reduction measures.Energy issues matter to the national economy and people’s livelihood.Implementing the energy transition strategy is a key link to achieve carbon emission reduction target.Identifying the key factors influencing the energy transition and the direction of the future transition can effectively drive carbon reduction actions.Based on the data related to the energy transition between China and the United States,this paper first uses the LMDI model to decompose carbon emissions from the two perspectives of industrial structure and transformation factors,and identifies the key influencing factors of China’s energy transition.Secondly,the comprehensive evaluation method is used to measure the industrial structure optimization and upgrading in multiple directions,and the coupling coordination model is used to explore the coordinated development degree of energy consumption structure(ES)and industrial structure(IS)and their spatio-temporal evolution characteristics.Thirdly,the direct and spatial spillover effects of key influencing factors on regional carbon intensity were studied using the spatial Durbin model,and a variety of spatial weight matrices and explanatory variables were used to test robustness.Finally,the direction of China’s energy transition is discussed by combining grey prediction and NAR neural network to predict the carbon peak year under different structural adjustment scenarios.The results show that the improvement of energy intensity is the first constraint to the continuous increase of carbon emissions,economic growth and population expansion will promote the continuous increase of carbon emissions,and the effects of energy consumption structure and industrial structure on the carbon emissions of the two countries are significantly different.Based on this,the spatial spillover effects of ES and IS on regional carbon intensity were deeply analyzed.It is found that ES represented by thermal power will not only increase the carbon intensity of the local region,but also significantly increase the carbon intensity of the spatially related region.However,IS has a significant negative impact on the carbon intensity of the local and neighboring areas,that is,if the industrial structure optimization degree increases by 1%,the local carbon intensity will decrease by 1.22%,and the carbon intensity of the neighboring area will decrease by 7.05%.The prediction results show that,under the baseline scenario,China can basically achieve the carbon peak goal in2030,with the peak emissions of 11,354.72 tons.Under the scenario of IS adjustment,it can be completed in 2028 in advance;By adjusting IS and ES at the same time,the carbon peak can be achieved by 2025.The conclusions of this paper not only help to deeply understand the problems facing the energy transition,but also make clear the importance and necessity of the transformation and upgrading of ES and IS to regional carbon reduction.To accelerate the realization of the carbon peak goal,China must strengthen industrial restructuring efforts,reduce the proportion of industry and increase the proportion of financial services,and promote the construction of a low-carbon industry-led industrial system.We also need to continuously optimize the energy consumption structure and gradually change the dominant role of fossil energy.More importantly,we need to gradually promote the establishment of regional cooperation mechanisms for low-carbon economic transformation and development,so as to form regional synergy for ecological civilization construction. |
PDF Full Text Request