Energy Consumption Structure, Industrial Structure Upgrading And Carbon Emissions: A Study From A Heterogeneous Perspectiv

As China’s economic development enters the "New Normal" of slowing growth,the extensive economic development mode is gradually transformed into a green and low-carbon economic development mode.However,China’s economic transformation is facing strong constraints such as energy consumption structure,industrial structure imbalance,resource and environmental pollution,and high carbon emissions.Therefore,in-depth exploration of the impact of energy consumption structure and industrial structure on the development model of green and low-carbon economy is of great practical significance for achieving high-quality economic development.Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2000 to 2019,this paper introduces a limited mixed model with accompanying variables to explore the characteristics and mechanism of the heterogeneous impact of energy consumption structure and industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions in various provinces.Specifically,firstly,review existing research on the impact of energy consumption structure and industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions,and analyze the current development status of China’s energy consumption structure,industrial structure upgrading,and carbon emissions.Secondly,a finite mixed model with accompanying variables is introduced to explore the differences in the impact patterns of energy consumption structure and industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions in different provinces,and further investigate the reasons for the heterogeneity of the impact patterns.Thirdly,considering that the same economy may experience changes in the impact patterns of energy consumption structure and industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions at different times,this article further explores the dynamic mode transformation of the impact patterns of energy consumption structure and industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions in different provinces during the inspection period and explains its reasons.The main research conclusions are: firstly,improving the energy consumption structure and increasing the level of industrial structure upgrading can significantly reduce carbon emissions.And there is a synergistic effect between the impact of energy consumption structure and industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions.With the improvement of energy consumption structure,the emission reduction effect of industrial structure upgrading is enhanced.At the same time,under the influence of industrial structure upgrading,the carbon reduction effect brought by energy consumption structure optimization is also significantly enhanced.Secondly,through endogenous clustering,the impact patterns of China’s energy consumption structure and industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions are divided into three types: initial type,human capital driven type,and technological innovation driven type;Under different carbon emission models,the optimization of energy consumption structure and the improvement of industrial structure upgrading have different inhibitory effects on carbon emissions.Thirdly,during the inspection period,the impact patterns of energy consumption structure and industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions in 29 provinces across the country underwent dynamic transformation;Human capital and technological innovation can significantly explain the heterogeneity of the impact patterns of the two structures on carbon emissions,as well as the transformation of patterns in the same economy at different times.Clarify the reasons for the heterogeneity of carbon emission patterns among different provinces,as well as the reasons for changes in carbon emission patterns within the same province,in order to provide a reasonable basis for fundamentally reducing carbon emissions and further improve the efficiency of regional emission reduction governance.