Carbon Emission Decoupling Effect And Carbon Peak Prediction Analysis In Shaanxi Province

China is in the tough period and window period of transition from a highcarbon system to a comprehensive green and low-carbon system.As the world’s largest energy producer and consumer,China is committed to unlocking and decoupling carbon emissions from economic growth,so as to achieve emission reduction targets while ensuring national energy security.China’s carbon dioxide emission reduction targets are allocated to provinces for implementation,and the future economic development and policy trends of each province are facing great uncertainty.Shaanxi Province is one of the major provinces of mineral resources in China,shouldering the arduous task of carbon emission reduction,and the study of the decoupling relationship between its carbon emissions and economic growth is of practical significance,and the implementation path of carbon emission reduction needs to be further explored if it wants to achieve the goal of carbon peak as soon as possible.This paper first reviews the domestic and foreign research on carbon peak prediction and carbon emission influencing factors.Based on the current economic,social and energy situation of Shaanxi Province from 1999 to 2021,the carbon emissions of Shaanxi Province were calculated,the carbon emission decoupling effect of Shaanxi Province was analyzed by using the Tapio decoupling model and the driving factors were decomposed using the LMDI model,and then the extended STIRPAT model was used and a variety of policy scenarios were set to predict the peak and time of carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province.Based on the above analysis,it is concluded that:(1)Shaanxi Province is in a stage of steady economic growth,with the industrial structure mainly consisting of the secondary industry.The growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions has decreased in recent years,but the total amount is still increasing year by year.Shaanxi Province has not yet reached its peak carbon emissions;(2)The overall trend of carbon decoupling coefficient in Shaanxi Province from 1999 to 2021 is relatively stable,which is a gradual improvement process from expanding negative decoupling to weak decoupling.Shaanxi Province still needs to handle the relationship between economic development and energy conservation and emission reduction in the future.However,the decoupling elasticity coefficient does not continue to decline,but has slightly rebounded in certain years.Analysis shows that if economic vitality improves,it will drive demand recovery in industries such as transportation and electricity,causing energy consumption such as coal to increase again.Therefore,in order to achieve carbon decoupling in Shaanxi Province,it is necessary to pay attention to the importance of local and overall,as well as short-term and medium to long-term carbon reduction.(3)The analysis of the driving factors for the decoupling of carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province shows that the energy structure effect is the key driving factor,which is almost consistent with the overall effect change situation;The economic scale effect has a restraining effect,while the optimization of industrial structure has a promoting effect,and the population scale effect has the smallest impact.(4)After conducting carbon peak prediction for Shaanxi Province,it was found that Shaanxi Province cannot achieve carbon peak in 2030 or even 2035 under the baseline policy scenario.Under the carbon control policy scenario,strengthened carbon control policy scenario,low-carbon policy scenario,and strengthened low-carbon policy scenario,the carbon peak time is 2033,2030,2028,and 2025;The carbon emissions corresponding to the peak year were 659.0243 million tons,623.7541 million tons,585.0255 million tons,and 528.6238 million tons,respectively.Based on the above conclusions,the following policy recommendations are proposed for the carbon emission reduction path in Shaanxi Province:(1)achieving stable economic growth and optimizing industrial structure;Maintaining economic stability is one of the basic prerequisites for stable social development.Relying on the regional cultural characteristics of Shaanxi Province,the proportion of the tertiary industry has steadily increased.(2)Improve technological level and energy efficiency;Shaanxi Province gathers universities and combines research institutes with universities and enterprises to form a "industry,academia,and research" trinity model,driven by innovation to improve energy efficiency.(3)Accelerate the low-carbon transformation of foreign trade,strengthen the implementation of carbon tax reduction and subsidies;Nowadays,Shaanxi Province’s foreign trade mainly focuses on manufacturing products with high emissions and high energy consumption.Therefore,it is necessary to accelerate the low-carbon transformation of import and export products,impose carbon taxes on high emission enterprises that produce import and export products,impose fines if necessary,flexibly adjust enterprise taxes with strong emission reduction efforts,and provide subsidies if necessary.(4)Adopting differentiated environmental and economic policies for various cities;The resource endowments of various cities in Shaanxi Province vary,and policy formulation should be tailored to local conditions rather than generalizing.Guided by green development policies that are suitable for various cities,we aim to promote coordinated development and contribute to the early achievement of carbon peak targets in the province.(5)Advocate the concept of sustainable consumption and provide appropriate policy guidance for low-carbon consumption;The concept of consumption dominates consumers’ consumption behavior,and the establishment of a sustainable consumption concept is a guarantee for the long-term emission reduction work in Shaanxi Province,deeply promoting low-carbon consumption.