Research On The Calculation,influencing Factors And Decoupling Effects Of Tourism Industry Carbon Emissions In The Background Of Low-carbon Development

As the problem of global warming intensifies,the development of low-carbon tourism while ensuring the stable growth of the tourism industry economy has become the only way for the tourism industry of various countries to achieve sustainable development.Therefore,an in-depth analysis of the dynamic changes and driving factors of regional tourism carbon emissions is an urgent issue for the tourism industry to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction goals and low-carbon transformation.Based on this,this article uses the "bottom-up" method to measure and analyze the carbon emissions of the tourism industry from the perspectives of tourism transportation,tourism accommodation and tourism activities from 1996 to 2018 in Shanxi Province.At the same time,the gray prediction model GM(1,1)is used to predict and calculate the carbon emissions of tourism in the post 10 years of Shanxi Province,and further based on the Tapio decoupling index analysis method to construct a decoupling index model of tourism carbon emissions in Shanxi And the analysis of the decoupling status between tourism carbon emissions and industry economic growth in the next 10 years,so as to be able to grasp the changing relationship between tourism growth and carbon emissions in Shanxi Province;on this basis,from a static and dynamic perspective,respectively,Using the improved LMDI index decomposition method and STIRPAT model analysis method,to establish an influencing factor decomposition model and influencing factor dynamic action model,respectively,in order to clarify the contribution value,action direction and influencing degree of the influencing factors of carbon emission of tourism industry in Shanxi Province,so as to The relevant policies formulated by the Shanxi provincial government to achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction in the tourism industry should provide a basis for the strategy.The research results show that:(1)Since 1996-2018,the total amount of carbon emissions from tourism in Shanxi has increased from 0.2667 Mt to 1.3235 Mt,showing an overall year-on-year growth trend,while per capita carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of the tourism industry have decreased year by year The average decline rate is 4.12% and 4.45% respectively;(2)In the next 10 years,under the condition of increasing tourism income in Shanxi Province,although the carbon emission intensity will decrease year by year,the total carbon emission will still be at an average growth rate of 7.66 % Speed continues to increase;(3)Shanxi province’s tourism carbon emissions decoupling state includes three types: weak decoupling,strong negative decoupling and strong decoupling,in which the proportion of research years with weak decoupling has reached 77.27%,and it is predicted that the next 10 years It will also be in a weak decoupling state,so the decoupling state of the entire tourism industry is poor,and the low-carbon tourism transformation is still facing huge challenges;(4)Factors influencing the carbon emissions of tourism in Shanxi Province are broken down into passenger scale,tourism consumption level,and energy intensity There are four types of energy structure effects in the industry and industry.Among them,the passenger scale effect has the largest contribution value and has a stimulating effect on the growth of carbon emissions,while suppressing the impact of carbon emissions.Among them,the energy intensity effect contributes the most;(5)In the study of the dynamic effect of the tourism carbon emission influencing factors in Shanxi Province,it can be seen that for every 1% increase in the total number of tourists and per capita tourism income,tourism carbon emissions will increase by 1.0466 %,0.6932%,0.4787%;and when the energy intensity and the proportion of tourism transportation energy increase by 1%,the carbon emissions of the tourism industry will be reduced by 0.7506% and 0.2001%.(6)It should proceed from strengthening tourism demand,optimizing the structure of the tourism industry,reducing energy intensity,and strengthening infrastructure construction,so as to provide a basis for the Shanxi provincial government to determine the direction of energy conservation and emission reduction in the tourism industry.