Research On The Prediction Of Carbon Peaking In Oil And Gas Resource-Based Cities In The Northeast

In the context of "double carbon",China has made it clear that it will strive to reach peak carbon by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.As China’s old i ndustrial base,the Northeast has been exploiting its rich coal and oil resources to meet the needs of the country’s heavy industrial development,which has led to the creation of a large number of resource-based cities.While oil and gas resource-based cities provide power support for the national economy,they also suffer from severe ecological problems due to over-exploitation and the high energy consumption,pollution and emissions in the processing process,which have caused enormous pressure on the environment of oil and gas resource-based cities.Therefore,it is particularly important to analyse the scenarios of carbon peaking in oil and gas resource-based cities in the Northeast,and to provide data and theoretical support for the formulation of policies for the early achievement of carbon peaking targets in each city.This paper uses sustainable development theory,externality theory and low carbon economy theory as the theoretical basis to study the prediction of carbon peaking in oil and gas resource-based cities in the Northeast.Firstly,the current development status of oil and gas resource-based cities in Northeast China was calculated,and the carbon emissions of oil and gas resource-based cities in Northeast China from 2001 to 2021 were calculated based on the carbon emission factor method,and the evolution trend of carbon emissions during the study period was analyzed.Secondly,population size,GDP per capita,urbanization rate,industrial structure,energy intensity and energy mix were selected as explanatory variables to obtain the extended STIRPAT model,and the model was empirically analyzed and tested for fitting effects.Based on the current development status of each city and its future planning outline,the scenario analysis method was used to set three rates of change of carbon emission influencing factors for oil and gas resource-based cities in the northeast region: low,medium and high,and the rates of change of influencing factors for each city were arranged and combined into 32 different combinations of scenarios under the baseline path,single path and combined path to forecast the carbon emissions of oil and gas resource-based cities in the northeast region from 2022 to 2035.The results show that the carbon emissions of oil and gas resource-based cities in Northeast China show an overall increasing trend from 2001 to 2021;all three cities show a positive influence on carbon emissions;in the baseline pathway scenario,Panjin and Daqing reach peak carbon in 2030,and in the si ngle pathway and combined pathway scenarios,all three cities reach peak carbon in 2025 at the earliest.Finally,with the results of the analysis,countermeasures to achieve the goal of achieving peak carbon in oil and gas resource-based cities in Northeast China are proposed in five aspects,including improving livelihood policies to alleviate brain drain and transforming the original economic model to develop a low-carbon economy.