Research On The Dynamic Effect Of Digital Economy Development Synergistic Promotion Of Growth And Carbon Reduction

At present,China’s economic development is facing increased uncertainties,increased uncertainties in the external development environment,the deepening of the "two mountains" concept internally,and the increasing urgency of the "double carbon" target.The questions of whether China’s economy can achieve a green transformation under the digital scenario and whether economic growth and environmental protection can achieve a win-win situation are becoming more and more prominent.How to build a reasonable theoretical framework to explore the relationship between the development of China’s digital economy,economic growth,and carbon emission reduction and examine the impact mechanism of growth and carbon reduction has become a hot topic in the field of environmental economics,which is of great significance to bring into play the green growth effect of the digital economy,realize the synergistic promotion of digital economic development and carbon emission reduction,and contribute to the formation of an environmental-economic policy synergistic theoretical framework based on the local context of China.It is also important for the formation of a theoretical framework for environmental-economic policy based on China’s local context.Based on the abovementioned real-life problems,this paper conducts an in-depth study on the mechanism of synergistic promotion of economic growth and carbon emission reduction for highquality development in the digital economy.First,the data for digital economy indicators were measured scientifically,and the scope of data measurement was extended.Combined with the National Economic Classification of Industries using the proportional factor drift method to separate the digital economy industries and digital economy-related industries,the measurement of the scale of digital industrialization was completed;data on measured economic input factors were collected;the average degree of contribution of digital capital to economic growth was estimated according to the growth accounting framework;and the measurement of the scale of industrial digitalization was completed.By comparing the typical data features to discover the growth and carbon reduction effect of digital economy development,the basis can basically be found in the data trend.Second,a four-sector DSGE model containing residents,manufacturers,the digital economy,and government departments is constructed,and the effects of stochastic shocks such as digital economy investment and digital economy structural changes on economic growth,total carbon emission,and intensity are studied under multiple endogenous mechanisms such as endogenous R&D and endogenous digital economy structure.Some conclusions are obtained:(1)stochastic technology shocks in the digital economy sector contribute to economic growth and historical fluctuations of total carbon emissions and intensity,and government infrastructure investment shocks have direct and indirect effects on carbon emissions intensity;(2)total factor productivity shocks and investment efficiency shocks can effectively promote economic growth and mitigate total carbon emissions and intensity;the impact of investment in environmental governance has a significant effect on the growth and carbon reduction of the economy,and the environmental governance potential of carbon tax needs to be realized through the development of the digital economy to improve the carbon market;the digital economy investment shock and the digital sector stochastic technology shock can both enhance the output of the digital economy and thus negatively suppress the total carbon emission and intensity,and the carbon emission reduction effect of the digital economy investment shock is strong and can increase the total output in the short term;(3)the role of shortterm shocks and long-term steady-state changes of new infrastructure on major macroeconomic variables such as total carbon emissions is not obvious;the efficiency of new infrastructure into digital infrastructure and the crowding effect of the digital economy on new infrastructure investment are two parameters that have more obvious short-term shocks and long-term steady-state changes on major macroeconomic variables;(4)the size of the impact of changes in structural parameters of the digital economy on economic variables such as economic growth,total carbon emissions,and intensity,in order of The influence parameters in order are industrial digitalization,digital industrialization and digital infrastructure;adjusting the structural parameters to better play the role of growth and carbon reduction should increase the share of digital infrastructure and relatively reduce the share of digital industrialization and industrial digitalization;(5)strengthening the intensity of policy incentives for digital economy development can enhance social welfare effects.Third,an SVAR model is established with the help of digital economy indicator measurement data to empirically test the growth carbon reduction effect of digital economy output and the differential characteristics shown by the structural nature of the digital economy.The empirical results show that:(1)digital economy output can promote economic growth and effectively mitigate carbon emissions;digital economy output shocks are the main cause of fluctuations in economic growth;and digital economy output shocks can also explain most of the fluctuations in carbon emission intensity.Digital economy shocks can affect economic growth and carbon emissions in the long run;(2)digital industrialization has a very obvious effect on economic growth and can effectively mitigate the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions;digitalization of industry has a limited effect on economic growth but shows a significant inhibitory effect in dealing with environmental pollution;digital industrialization shocks are very convincing in explaining the fluctuations of GDP and carbon emission intensity,with the contribution rate being the highest.The contribution of industrial digitization is the next strongest and also has some explanatory power.Fourth,we compare the similarities and differences between the DSGE model and the SVAR model in studying the carbon reduction effect of growth in digital economy development.In terms of modelling ideas,the DSGE model and the SVAR model each have their own strengths and weaknesses,and their theoretical prominence and empirical statistics form a complementary approach.In terms of modelling conclusions,both models conclude that digital economy development plays a role in the growth and carbon reduction effects,but the DSGE model can realise scenario design due to numerical simulation and study in depth the impact of digital economy policies and how to optimise the efficacy of digital economy development.The comprehensive two-model conclusions put forwards some policy recommendations:(1)digital economy development can effectively alleviate the pressure of carbon emissions,but also for economic growth and efficiency,which is the inevitable choice for China’s high-quality economic development.The country should vigorously develop the digital economy industry;(2)total factor productivity is still an important factor in the process of economic development.We must pay close attention to research and development innovation and focus on improving the resources,including human,material,and financial resources;(3)the implementation of carbon tax policy requires a high market environment,and the market needs to be improved with the help of digital economy tools,and the pilot implementation of carbon tax can be considered gradually as the digital economy develops further;(4)the investment in infrastructure construction should not just increase the scale of investment but should focus on the efficiency of transforming traditional infrastructure into digital infrastructure and should also pay attention to the "crowding" effect caused by the digital economy reaching the bottleneck.(5)scientifically promote the development of the digital economy structure,pay attention to the structural changes of the digital economy,maintain the healthy and orderly development of the digital economy structure within the tolerable range,and prevent the breakthrough of the structural "threshold" resulting in the waste of digital economy resources;(6)strengthen the intensity of policy incentives for the development of the digital economy,and amplify the efficacy of the development of the digital economy in increasing social welfare.The digital economy has a far-reaching impact on China’s economy and society,and the country should further exert the potential of the digital economy to control economic growth and the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions and guide the digital economy to better promote the win-win development of the environment and economy.