Measurement And Convergence Analysis Of China’s Carbon Emission Efficiency Under The “Double-carbon” Background

The introduction of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals（referred to as"the goals"）marks the vision of green development and the approach of green development as strategies for accomplishing the next centennial goal.The new climate target will become a long-term strategy direction,a fundamental reform that will spark the future economic development model,a broad and deep systemic reform in economy and society.Green water and mountains are precious fortune.The development with low carbon as the goal concerns the future of mankind and the achievement of the goals concerns the future of China’s economy and society.The key to achieving the goals is not only"carbon emission reduction"but also"development".In particular,it is crucial to change the mode of economic development,promote green economic development,and achieve the goals in development.The current economic structure and technology make it certain that development will lead to more carbon emissions.In the absence of a major technological breakthrough,promoting the efficiency of carbon emissions is the most crucial approach to facilitate the achievement of the goals through development.To accelerate the achievement of the goals,it is necessary to assess the real carbon emission management level in China scientifically and comprehensively from the perspective of China’s actual situation and find the way to comprehensively improve the development of China’s low-carbon economy on this basis.In this dissertation,a carbon emission efficiency analysis framework was developed and carbon emission efficiency as well as other related concepts were defined.Based on the data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2011-2020,using labor force,capital stock,and energy consumption as input variables,regional real GDP as desirable output,CO₂ emissions as non-desirable output,and economic development level,industrial structure,energy structure,government regulation,science and technology innovation level,and openness to the world as environmental variables,a three-stage SBM-DEA model was applied as an analytical tool to measure the carbon emission efficiency of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2011 to 2020,and the PS convergence model was used to explore the trend of convergence of carbon emission efficiency in the 30 provinces and cities in China.The following main conclusions are formed based on the above.First,the real carbon emission efficiency treated by the three-stage SBM-DEA model is more consistent with the real situation in China.On the one hand,it is essential to use the second-stage SFA regression analysis,and it is proved through the calculation that the effect of management inefficiency is extremely large,and the effect of random error is extremely small,which justifies the use of SFA regression for measurement.On the other hand,it is found through comparison that the carbon emission efficiency values exhibit an unbalanced distribution across provinces and regions in China,generally following a distinct stepped distribution in the order of eastern region-central region-western region,which highly corresponds to the law of the distribution of production technology level in China.Second,environmental variables have a significant effect on the carbon emission efficiency of the 30 provinces and cities in China.Improving the regional real GDP per capita reduces carbon emission efficiency,increasing the ratio of regional secondary industry in GDP facilitates carbon emission efficiency,increasing the ratio of coal consumption in total energy consumption decreases carbon emission efficiency,increasing the ratio of regional fiscal expenditure in regional GDP of each province and city increases carbon emission efficiency,increasing the ratio of R&D expenditure in regional GDP increases carbon emission efficiency,and increasing the ratio of total import and export to GDP of each province and city decreases carbon emission efficiency.Third,through the analysis of the convergence test of the real carbon emission efficiency of the 30 provinces and cities in China from 2011 to 2020,it is found that there is no overall convergence,but there are eight types of club convergence.Club A includes 5 members-Beijing,Jiangsu,Guangdong,Zhejiang,and Sichuan;Club B includes 8 members-Tianjin,Shanghai,Anhui,Jiangxi,Shandong,Hubei,Hunan,and Chongqing;Club C includes 4 members-Hebei,Liaoning,Henan,and Guangxi;Club D includes 2 members-Inner Mongolia and Shanxi;Club E includes 3 members-Hainan,Yunnan,and Xinjiang;Club F includes 2 members-Guizhou and Gansu;Club G includes 2 members-Ningxia and Qinghai;and Divergence Group H includes 4 members-Jilin,Heilongjiang,Fujian,and Shaanxi.Based on the research findings,policy recommendations are proposed from the perspectives of improving the development environment and implementing differentiated regional carbon emission policies.In this dissertation,it is suggested that in order to improve the development environment,it is necessary to change the economic growth mode and promote high-quality economic development;promote technological development through innovation and promote the popularization of high technology to the whole country;vigorously develop new energy and optimize the energy consumption structure;strengthen the government’s investment and guidance and regulate industrial development;and increase the openness to the world and advance to the higher end of the industrial chain.Regarding the differentiated regional carbon emission policies,it is suggested to take the five provinces and cities of Beijing,Jiangsu,Guangdong,Zhejiang and Sichuan as models to learn from and actively follow their advanced experiences;accelerate the carbon emission management of resource-rich provinces and cities;for the eastern region,it is important to improve the efficiency of the use of its capital stock,among which Shanghai,Liaoning and Guangdong should be alert to the decline of their carbon emission management efficiency;for the central and western regions,it is recommended to attach importance to the cultivation and utilization of talents,as well as to strengthen the efficiency of the use of their capital stock.