Research On The Impact Of Air Pollution On The Long-term Residence Intention Of Urban Migrant Populatio

Nowadays,environmental issues have become an increasing focus of society,among which global warming,frequent extreme weather events,and worsening air quality are particularly prominent.In this context,the "commodity attribute" of urban air environment has become increasingly apparent,and high-quality air has become an advantage in attracting foreign populations.With the improvement of living standards,the demand for high-quality air among mobile populations is increasing,and this demand has become one of the key factors for cities to attract and retain talent.Therefore,based on traditional population migration theory,incorporating the long-term residence intention of mobile populations into the analytical framework,constructing a decision model for mobile population longterm residence,and exploring its mechanism,have certain theoretical and practical significance for accurately understanding the migration characteristics and behavioral decisions of mobile populations in China.This article first reviews and summarizes domestic and foreign literature and related theories,and constructs a cost-effectiveness model for long-term residence decisions of mobile populations.This model explains the impact of air pollution on the migration and settlement decisions of mobile populations.Then,further mechanistic analysis is conducted to explain how air pollution affects the long-term residence intention of urban mobile populations and the heterogeneity of its impact on the long-term residence intention of mobile populations.Finally,using the 2015-2017 dynamic monitoring data of mobile populations in China and macro-level data such as PM2.5 in cities,the impact of air pollution on the long-term residence intention of urban mobile populations and its inherent mechanism are empirically tested from the perspective of environmental economics.Considering the differences in individual characteristics and urban features of mobile populations,the heterogeneity of both is also empirically tested,and corresponding suggestions are proposed based on the research conclusions.The empirical results show that air pollution has a significant negative effect on the long-term residence intention of urban mobile populations.Taking the regression results of the full sample in the baseline model as an example,the marginal effect of PM2.5 concentration annual average is-0.0149.With every 10%increase in the PM2.5 concentration annual average of the destination city,the probability of long-term residence of mobile populations decreases by 0.149 percentage points.Air pollution suppresses the long-term residence intention of mobile populations in the destination city and creates a "push" effect on them.The impact of air pollution on the long-term residence intention of mobile populations is heterogeneous in individual and urban features.In terms of micro individual characteristics,air pollution has a stronger inhibitory effect on the long-term residence intention of mobile populations with low income and low education background.In terms of urban features,cities with high economic development and large scale have a lower inhibitory effect of air pollution on the long-term residence intention of mobile populations.Air pollution affects the long-term residence intention of mobile populations in cities through two channels: harming their physical and mental health and lowering their employment quality in the local city.