| Crude oil as a commodity its financial attributes appear,the price is affected by supply and demand,exchange rates,policies and other factors affected by large fluctuations.From 1980 to 1997,the price of crude oil continued to fall,maintaining a low operating state.During the two financial crises from 1997 to 2008,oil price continued to rise.Since 2008,oil price has fluctuated frequently,and large-scale oil price hikes have occurred from time to time.Affected by domestic crude oil reserves and exploration and production technology,the increase in crude oil demand is greater than the increase in crude oil production,and the supply of crude oil is insufficient,and it is highly dependent on crude oil imports.Large fluctuations in oil price will not only affect the production and operation of domestic crude oil-related industries,but also affect the national economic development.Therefore,clarifying the mechanism of the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on various industrial sectors can help to hedge the risks and reduce the economic losses caused by crude oil price fluctuations for various industries,and can also provide a theoretical basis for Chinese crude oil market traders to forecast crude oil price movements and make trading decisions.The main purpose of the paper is to study the volatility spillover effects of crude oil price fluctuations on crude oil-associated industries using the GARCH model and to construct a oileconomy computable general equilibrium(OE-CGE)model to study the effects of crude oil price fluctuations on crude oil-associated industries.First,a social accounting matrix is prepared using data from input-output tables,national statistical yearbooks,and fiscal statistical yearbooks,which are leveled by the cross-entropy method.Second,on the basis of the two basic elements of standard CGE input capital and labor,the crude oil price is set as the third element input,and an OE-CGE model is established.Then,the correlation coefficients of the production function,consumption function,and investment and saving functions are calibrated for the two stages.Finally,a variety of different crude oil price scenarios are set for numerical simulation to comprehensively study the effects of crude oil price fluctuations on consumption,taxation,investment,and output of crude oil-related industrial sectors.The results of the study show that(1)There is a significant volatility spillover effect of crude oil price on crude oil-related industries.The impact of crude oil price on the energy,materials,industrial,optional consumption,daily consumption,finance,and utilities sectors is more significant than on the weakly correlated sectors of crude oil such as real estate.(2)The effect of crude oil price changes on consumption in the crude oil and natural gas products sector,crude oil,coke products,and processed nuclear fuel products sectors,which are strongly correlated industrial sectors of crude oil,is significant.When crude oil price changes,the change in household and government consumption inputs to the crude oil and natural gas products sector,crude oil,coking products and processed nuclear fuel sectors,which are strongly associated with crude oil,is significantly larger than that of other industrial sectors.(3)Crude oil price fluctuations increase the amount of production taxes and decrease the amount of import tariffs in each industrial sector.Among them,the greatest impact is on the crude oil and natural gas extraction products sector.(4)Crude oil price volatility leads to an increase in output in most of the strongly crude oil-related industry sectors.An increase in crude oil prices pushes up the prices of various products,thus indirectly increasing the output value of each industry sector,while a decrease in oil price increases the output of each industry sector,which in turn leads to an increase in total output value.(5)Changes in crude oil price have the greatest impact on investment in the strongly crude oil-related industry sectors.Crude oil price fluctuations bring profit opportunities for crude oil producing industrial sectors such as crude oil and natural gas extraction products,and increased investment must lead to higher profits regardless of crude oil price changes.However,for crude oil consuming industries,changes in crude oil price increase business costs and therefore reduce investment.Therefore,stable oil price helps to reduce the tax burden of each industrial sector,reduce the investment risk of each industrial sector,and ensure the stable development of the domestic economy.Based on the above conclusions,domestic crude oil price should be stabilized through optimizing the energy consumption structure,establishing dual national and corporate crude oil reserves,and improving the technology level of energy production industries to achieve high-quality economic development. |
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