Different And Asymmetric Macroeconomic Impacts Of Crude Oil Spot Price Fluctuations In Major Economies

Frequent diplomatic disputes between the US and Iran,Saudi Arabia,Russia and other oil producing countries have made the fluctuations and impacts of oil price become global focus once again.With the acceleration of global economic integration and energy substitution,oil price fluctuations not only have a strong impact on development and security of crude oil supplier and demander,but also have a profound impact on stability and recovery of global economy.While the impact is different,volatile and time varying.From the perspectives of difference and asymmetry,this paper applied BVARSV(Bayesian Analysis of a Vector Autoregressive Model with Stochastic Volatility and time-varying Parameters)model to comprehensively analyzed and measured the impacts of l oil price fluctuations on economy,finance and trade in four economies(the US,China,Europe and Japan),taking into consider six macroeconomic indicators and two oil price decomposition ideas proposed by Mork(1989)and Hamiton(1996).Results of differential impacts of international oil price fluctuations on four major economies are as follows.(1)Different crude oil consumption made oil price fluctuations had the strongest impact on European GDP and the weakest impact on Japan’s GDP.At the same time,China’s higher manufacturing share made oil price fluctuations had the longest impact on its GDP.(2)European economic integration dispersed the impact of oil price fluctuations on price to some extent,which made oil price fluctuations had the weakest impact on its CPI.Development of the US shale gas revolution have reduced its dependence on crude oil,and crude oil is priced in US dollars make oil price fluctuations had the strongest impact on US CPI and the previous impact is negative.(3)China’s lagging currency adjustment policy and RMB exchange rate reform appreciated the RMB as oil price rose.Small but slow-growing CPI caused by oil price fluctuations in Europe devalued the euro.The later growth of the Japanese money supply caused by oil price fluctuations devalued the yen.(4)The four economies are all crude oil importer,as a result,rising oil price reduces their net exports.Oil price fluctuations had the strongest impact on China’s net exports due to the cheap labor.(5)The small but slow-growing inflation in Europe caused by oil price fluctuations made oil price fluctuations had the strongest and longest impact on its interest rate.(6)Compared withthe other three economies,China’s lower marketization degree led to the strongest impacts of oil price fluctuations on its money supply.Results of asymmetric impacts of oil price fluctuations showed that rising and falling oil prices under two different decomposition ideas had asymmetric impacts on the four economies basically.However,the asymmetric impact of rising and falling oil prices on Europe was weaker.Because of the different lag time between the two decomposition ideas,"ratchet effect" of consumption made the asymmetric oil prices under the two decomposition ideas had opposite impacts on economic indicators and the impacts of asymmetric oil price under the decomposition idea of Mork(1989)was stronger and longer on most macroeconomic indicators than Hamiton(1996).On the whole,results of different and asymmetric impacts of oil price fluctuations all indicated the close relationship between oil price fluctuations and macro-economies.However,due to the differences in economic structure and development stage,the impacts of oil price fluctuations on four economies were different.Considering the development status at home and abroad,size and direction of the impact of oil price fluctuations on different economic indicators in the region,all economies should formulate corresponding preventive measures to reduce the adverse impact of oil price fluctuations on their economic development in order to promote the sound and rapid development of regional economy.