Research On Transmission Mechanism Of The International Crude Oil Price Fluctuations On The Domestic Price

Due to the scarcity and the imbalance distribution of the crude oil,it has become indispensable strategic resources for the country to survive and develop,and also has important significance to safeguard the country’s political stability and economic development.However,because of the high external dependency,we have to accept the impact of the international crude oil price fluctuations passively.At the same time,as one of the goals of our country’s macro control,the price stability has important significance to our country’s economic stability and healthy development.Price fluctuations extent from the commodity price fluctuations at a certain extent,therefore,to study the effect of international crude oil price fluctuations on our price index is of great significance.In this paper,the first chapter mainly elaborates the research background,significance and research methods,and summarizes of theme related literature from different aspects.The second chapter expounds the international and domestic oil pricing mechanism and price fluctuation,and also the reasons are analyzed;The third chapter mainly analyzed the theory of price conduction mechanism,and puts forward the hypothesis of three transmission routes.The fourth chapter through the establishment of the VAR model to analyze the effectiveness of each of the transmission mechanism from the perspective of empirical analysis.The empirical results show that the transmission mechanism are valid,the international oil price fluctuations influence the traffic price index by influencing the fuel power purchase price index,and also affects our country’s producer price index by influencing the chemical raw materials purchasing price index,and also influence the food price index of our country by influencing the international grain prices.The empirical results also show that transmission based on chemical products is the most effective in these three transmission path.The fifth chapter put forward four policy suggestions according to the empirical analysis conclusions of this paper.