The Impact Of The Listing Of INE Crude Oil Futures On The Spot Price Of Domestic Crude Oil

In recent years,China's crude oil consumption is heavily dependent on imports,However,for a long time,China has not enough discourse power in the pricing of crude oil,a The listing of Shanghai International Energy Trading Center(INE)crude oil futures is an important measure for China to fight for the pricing power of crude oil and to build a crude oil pricing system that can truly reflect the supply and demand relationship in the Asia Pacific region.Since its listing,INE crude oil futures has maintained a relatively active state,forming a certain scale of crude oil futures market.In this context,the paper mainly analyzes the price relationship between ine crude oil futures and domestic crude oil spot and the price relationship between the mainstream crude oil futures and domestic crude oil spot before and after the listing of ine crude oil futures to study the impact of the listing of ine crude oil futures on the domestic crude oil spot price,and then evaluates the impact of the listing of ine crude oil futures on the domestic crude oil spot price Effect,correctly and objectively positioning the current situation of INE crude oil futures.When analyzing the price relationship between INE crude oil futures and domestic crude oil spot,it is found that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between them through Engle Granger co integration test.Through the G-S model,it is found that the ? reflecting the guiding role of futures on spot price is equal to 0.5526,only slightly greater than 0.5,indicating that the price discovery function of ine crude oil futures is weak at present.Through the analysis of establishing the auto vector regression model and other methods,it shows that the listing of ine crude oil futures does not change or weaken the one-way volatility spillover effect between WTI,Brent crude oil futures price and Shengli crude oil spot price.Through the establishment of G-S model analysis,it is found that the ? value reflecting the guiding effect of WTI and Brent crude oil futures on the spot price of Shengli crude oil does not decrease significantly after INE crude oil futures are listed.Through Chow breakpoint test,this paper analyzes two linear equations in G-S model used to analyze the dynamic relationship of spot price.It is found that the structure of linear equation has not changed significantly before and after the listing of ine crude oil futures,that is to say,the guiding effect of WTI and Brent crude oil futures on the spot price of Shengli crude oil has not changed significantly.The above results show that the listing of INE crude oil futures has not changed the following of domestic crude oil spot price to foreign mainstream crude oil futures price,reflecting that there is still a large gap between ine crude oil futures,WTI and Brent crude oil futures,and the distance between ine crude oil futures and the Asia Pacific crude oil pricing benchmark also has a long way to go.Finally,based on the empirical analysis results,combined with the experience and lessons of other countries in the Asia Pacific region,some suggestions are put forward for the development of domestic crude oil futures and spot market.