Study On Scenario Deduction Of Oil Storage System Fire Accident Based On Graphical Evaluation Review Technique Network

In recent years,the number of oil and chemical raw material reservoir areas is increasing,and large oil(gas)storage tanks are increasingly concentrated.The security problem of oil storage system is becoming more and more prominent.Petrochemical industry is a high-risk industry,oil storage system of fire accident have unconventionally,sudden,great harm,once the accident consequences are envisaged,therefore in the process of emergency management must make the correct disposal measures,timely control the situation,the first time is likely to bring accident consequences to minimize the damage.Therefore,by analyzing the evolution path and future development trend of oil storage system fire accident scenario,it is helpful for decision makers to make accurate judgment in the process of emergency management,and it is of great significance to curb the spread of fire situation.In order to grasp the possible development process and change trend of the accident more accurately,this thesis proposes a scenario deduction method for oil storage system fire accidents based on the idea of scenario analysis,integrating case statistics and GERT(Graph Evaluation and Review Technique)network,and constructs a scenario deduction GERT network model.Based on the comprehensive data analysis of 174 cases of typical oil storage system fire and explosion accidents in important oil storage areas at home and abroad in the past 50 years,20 kinds of accidents in the evolution of my country’s oil storage system fire accidents and emergency response processes are summarized.The evolution path diagram of fire accident scenarios in oil storage systems is constructed and transformed into a GERT network of fire accident scenarios in oil storage systems by using the GERT analysis algorithm to find out the possible paths of scenario evolution.The probability of occurrence,average time of occurrence,variance of occurrence and other characteristics of the possible paths of scenario evolution were obtained by the GERT network analysis algorithm.In the scenario probability solution,a combination of the scenario conditional probability obtained from case statistics and the scenario empirical probability obtained from the DS evidence theory modified expert scores is proposed.The validity and reasonableness of the proposed method and model are verified by the case of Dalian "7.16" oil tank explosion and fire accident.Fire in order to further the oil storage system influence the relationship between each activity were analyzed,and the better help decision makers quickly accurately predict situation,through the analysis of this research,oil storage system function form between the fire accident,describe the concept of three kinds of coupling effect between disaster events,and design the GERT network based on simulation of three kinds of coupling node logical structure;The coupling model of disaster events in fire accident scenario of oil storage system is further established,and the solution method of coupling model parameters is given,Matlab software is used to simulate the coupling model of oil and gas storage and transportation fire accident scenario to verify the validity and accuracy of the model.The inferring method and model of oil storage system fire accident scenario integrated with case statistics and GERT network can better solve the problem of qualitative and quantitative description of the development and evolution process of the accident,and provide a new research idea and quantitative analysis means for the prediction and analysis of oil storage system fire accident scenario evolution.The results show that the scenario model proposed in this thesis can estimate the disaster evolution of oil storage system fire accidents,and has a certain guiding significance for the implementation of disaster control measures.