Study On Evolution Rule And Scenario Deduction Of Typical Accident In Chemical Industry Zones

With the development of chemical industry park,hazard installations present a diversified and intensive distribution,etc.Major hazards accident frequency is higher than other units,moreover accident extension happens easily and lead other device failure.Based on the accident severity of the consequence and the high frequency,this paper carried out the following research in this paper.Internal and external vulnerability device distribution in chemical industry park are obtained through analysis the important protective goal in park.Using ARAMIS standard screen out the park's major hazards and take the PURPLE BOOK ranking the danger of major hazards,then form a complete set of hazards screening frame.This will has guiding significance for the guard of important protection goal.This paper select the vapor cloud explosion,BLEVE and pool fire accident as the representative of typical accident through statistical data.Analyze the effect of accident expanding about the nature gas,the park layout and meteorological conditions.Using FLACS software to simulate wind and safety barrier's affection on the spread of vapor cloud.By analyze the mechanism of the influence factors,it is concluded the expansion path of the accident then indicate the direction for the accident prediction.Bow-tie model can be showed from the cause of the accident to happen and to extension.Bayesian networks can realize the prediction about accident consequences.This paper can realize the typical accident consequences deduction through translating Bow-tie model into Bayesian network,then obtained various kind of typical accident's damage to personnel and equipment's scope and extension of damage through empirical model,it can predict the probability of various consequences and provide the foundation for accident prevention.Due to using experience formula to calculate the area of accident influence scope is very tedious.In order to improve the computational efficiency,this paper exploited a computing systems about accident influence scope based on MATLAB 2013 a scientific computing platform.This paper get the influence of accident and thermal radiation flux as output variables through images and data's input,output and the independent variables about calculation process as input variables.This paper obtained the ranking scheme about major hazards through analyzes a chemical industry park.Device failure types are obtained through the research to the biggest risk device.This paper using the software analysis system to get the scope of accident and analyze the other devices possible accident type within influence scope.This paper can forecast accident consequences effectively thorough combined with Bayesian network and provide a support for safety management work.