| Coal mine fires are sudden and have serious consequences,once they occur,they can easily lead to serious accidents and are often accompanied by a series of derivative events.Before an accident occurs,there will always be precursory factors.To explore the evolution law of accident development from the perspective of precursory scenarios is conducive to rapid and efficient emergency decision-making,so as to eliminate the accident in the bud or reduce the losses caused by the accident.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the emergency decision-making model and method of coal mine external fire emergency based on the deduction of precursory scenarios.First of all,this paper starts from the scenario analysis,discusses the occurrence law of coal mine fire accidents,divides the precursor scenario elements according to the classification of causes of coal mine external fire accidents,uses jieba word segmentation to extract key precursor scenarios,and collects 88 coal mine cases from 2002 to 2020,the accident causes are analyzed in detail from the aspects of mechanical friction,electrical equipment,open fire,blasting,and coal dust and gas explosionsand,a three-level index system of the precursory scenario elements of coal mine fire accidents is constructed.Secondly,the evolution law of precursory scenarios for emergency decision-making due to external fires in coal mines is studied in chronological order,and it is proposed to divide the scenario elements into scenario states,precursory elements,and emergency activities.Borrowing the dynamic Bayesian network method to determine the probability of network nodes,establish a dynamic Bayesian network for the evolution of externally-caused fire scenarios in coal mines,and then construct an emergency decision-making model for deduction of externally-caused fires in coal mines,and use netica software to calculate the probability of scenario nodes;then,emergency decision-making plans are generated based on expert experience for key scenarios,and a multi-attribute decision-making method is used to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for emergency decision-making of external fire accidents in coal mines,the decision matrix is constructed,the attribute weight is determined,and the TOPSIS method based on the entropy weight method is used to optimize the emergency decision-making scheme.Finally,through the case analysis of the "9.27" major fire accident in Songzao Coal Mine in Chongqing,the Bayesian network deduction path map of the accident scenario is constructed,and the dynamic emergency decision-making process based on the scenario is studied and optimized.By establishing a dynamic Bayesian network model for precursory scenario analysis,this paper analyzes the scenario evolution path and scenario deduction emergency decision-making model of coal mine external fire accidents,combining the probability helps decision makers to clearly and intuitively see the future development trend of the accident and the factors affecting the development trend of the accident from the graph,based on the entropy weight method-TOPSIS method,it can assist the selection of emergency decision-making,and provide a reference and basis for decision-makers to make emergency decision-making due to mine external fire. |
