Quantitative Analysis Of Marine Traffic Risk Control Options (ROC) Based On FTA Models

Nowadays the risk assessments are implemented in situations with considerable data.Statistical and probabilistic tools have been developed and provide useful decision support for many types of applications.However,risk decisions are about situations characterized by large uncertainties and emergence.Such situations are addressed in different types of approaches and methods,and it is the main challenge for the risk field,to develop suitable tools and processes for this purpose.Almost every field of study on risk control measures can be implemented or adapted,such as medical field,finance,safety engineering,transportation,security or supply chain management,etc.Many researchers of today are more relaxed than previously about using nonprobabilistic representations of uncertainty.The basic idea is about considering the probability as the main tool,where other approaches and methods may be used when credible quantitative probability methods are applied.For situations characterized by large and “deep” uncertainties,there seems to be utter acceptance of the need for seeing beyond probability,this does not mean that the use of the theory of possibility or the theory of evidence is that the only such results are necessary to develop an evaluation,but the combination of probability and quantitative approaches represents an interesting alternative direction for this research.The elements of thinking or brainstorming,using the tension between different perspectives for representing and expressing uncertainties to obtain something new,more wide-ranging,and better.The objective of the thesis is no more than to explore the possibilities for quantifying and performing more thorough results related to marine traffic risk analysis,further than that,the thesis proposes an alternative method using a combination of tools and techniques to assess and justify the urgent implementation of RCM using the Fault Tree Analysis as foundation and reliability techniques to evaluate how much influence these RCM have on the occurrence of the accidents.The final results are to provide a general but accurate quantitative conclusion of which RCM are necessary to be implemented as a priority,specially oriented to those countries that have limited resources and where the only data available is the historical data(accidents).Since the modeling of risk quantitative analysis in marine traffic is a difficult task,it is needed to take into account numerous aspects and integrate various disciplines,commonly risk can be defined as the product of the probability occurrence of an undesired event,therefore its expected consequences in terms of human,environmental and economic losses,so the methodology under this possibilities has been used previously in various investigations,basically,a quantitative approach values are used for the analysis of the risk control options in this thesis.How to understand and deal with those uncertainties has been discussed a lot in different studies about risk,from the early stages of risk assessment until today.Probabilistic analysis is the predominant method used to handle the uncertainties involved in risk analysis,for aleatory uncertainty there is an “agreement” about using probabilities with a limiting relative frequency interpretation.However,for representing and expressing uncertainty,the answer is not always so straight,but interpretation.Bayesian subjective probability approaches are the most common,but many alternatives have been proposed,including interval probabilities,models using different samples,and qualitative tools.In the end,the level of navigational safety depends on correct functioning things or technical equipment and systems,mariner’s knowledge,experience,and skills,etc.The high probability of ships’ accidents is one of the indicators to assess a navigational safety level,nowadays to support this type of evaluation it is necessary to use methods or tools related to risk quantitative approach values.The probability of a certain event and an approach that may occur can make every risk point more dangerous,it is therefore essential by implementing the risk control options(RCO)to guarantee maritime safety,security and reliability without any AIS data available.Another problem is not only being aware of a high-risk existence probability but also the need to prioritize which risk control measures need to be implemented first and which can be implemented later.This thesis not only looks forward to approaching a quantitative method that will use historical data as the main foundation but also will propose how to assess the risk control measures to be urgently implemented due to their level of impact in reducing accidents.