| In the context of land space planning,the research of "dual evaluation" is faced with many difficulties,and various urban problems keep emerging.The rapid increase of urban population,environmental degradation and resource crisis bring uncertain factors to the healthy development of cities.A variety of "urban diseases" are seriously affecting our lives,leading to the increasing vulnerability of cities.In the face of the above problems,how to improve the "double evaluation" research system and realize the unity of the "three effects" of society,economy and ecology is of great importance to reduce the vulnerability of cities and enhance their adaptability to external disturbances."Double evaluation" serves for the territorial space planning and truly depicts the basic conditions of regional resources and ecological environment.The study of resilience provides a new paradigm for urban sustainable development and a new idea for the study of "dual evaluation",which is of great significance for promoting the high-quality and sustainable development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city.Therefore,this paper takes 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as an example,builds resilience evaluation index system based on the concept and research framework of society-ecosystem,uses entropy-TOPSIS model to measure resilience and analyze its spatial and temporal pattern during 2010-2019,and uses obstacle degree model and BP neural network to analyze influencing factors and make dynamic prediction.The results are as follows:(1)The overall mean value of urban social-ecosystem resilience in Beijing-TianjinHebei was low and showed a slight decline;The spatial pattern was "high in the center and low in the periphery".The regions with high resilience include Beijing and Tianjin,while the resilience of all regions in Hebei is at a medium and low level,and there is a big gap between them and Beijing and Tianjin.The overall level and spatial pattern of the resilience of the social and economic subsystems are similar to that of the social-ecosystem system.However,the overall score of ecosystem resilience was at a medium level,showing a pattern of "high in the south and low in the north".(2)Major obstacles to urban resilience in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei include regional comprehensive economic development level,level of utilization of foreign capital,resident income and living standard,regional wage level,employment stability,medical and health level,among which the economic subsystem index accounts for a high proportion.The low level of scientific and technological development,higher education and fixed investment in some regions are the main obstacle factors for the reduction of resilience.The obstacle factors are different in different regions.Among them,Beijing and Tianjin suffer from more negative impacts brought by rapid urbanization,such as population pressure and large proportion of urban land use,while the obstacle factors restricting the improvement of resilience of Hebei cities can be summarized in economic aspects.(3)The dynamic prediction of the urban resilience of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from2023 to 2027 shows that the resilience shows a slightly fluctuating upward trend,but the development is slow.The degree of resilience of all regions is still low and low,and a few regions with high and medium resilience are not enough to provide strong support for the development of urban resilience of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The spatial distribution pattern is still "high in the middle and low in the periphery",which is characterized by a high resilience score of core cities in the central part of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster,while most of the outer cities with low resilience are distributed in a encircling mode. |
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