Research On Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management In Northeast China From The Perspective Of Resilient Cities

With the development of China’s cities towards informatization and intelligence,the challenges faced also tends to be complicated and diverse.Therefore,urban managers should carry out multi-dimensional prevention and control of urban disasters and attach importance to multi-field management of risks.The development philosophy of resilient cities provides new ideas for urban disaster risk management.However,the development of resilient cities in China is at the initial stage.Research in related fields is still at the stage of qualitative research,where the system is not mature enough,and the scale of research is mostly single-dimensional,static single-period analysis.This kind of research fails to treat the city as a complex dynamic system,so it is difficult to reveal the law of urban resilience development.Moreover,the research objects in terms of resilient cities in China are mostly high-quality development areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations,and there are few studies on the northeast region with lagging development.Consequently,how to formulate a dynamic comprehensive disaster risk management system for Northeast China from the perspective of resilient cities is an urgent problem to be solved.This paper presents domestic and abroad research on resilient cities and disaster risk,and establishes a dynamic comprehensive disaster risk management system for Northeast China from the perspective of resilient cities based dynamic adaptation theory of resilience in the dimensions of physical space,social space and information space.Firstly,this paper uses the TOPSIS to establish the urban resilience evaluation model to evaluate the urban resilience in Northeast China from 2010 to 2019.Secondly,the grey prediction model is employed to improve the BP neural network and establish the prediction model to predict the urban resilience from 2020 to 2024.Finally,the systematic clustering and natural breaks are used to classify the risks of prediction results of comprehensive urban resilience and trio-space resilience.By visualizing the spatial data,explore the development law of urban resilience in Northeast China from the two dimensions of time and space,and clarify the focus of integrated urban disaster risk management.The results show that:(1)Northeast China is in a relatively high risk state as a whole,and Shenyang,Dalian,Changchun and Harbin are in a low risk range;(2)Cities in the northwestern Heilongjiang Province,Liaoning Province,and Hulunbuir and Tongliao in eastern Inner Mongolia post lower physical space resilience and need to strengthen infrastructure and ecological construction;(3)The economic and social development of Northeast China is stable,and there is little difference in the social spatial resilience between core cities and surrounding cities;(4)The information spatial resilience in most regions is low,which requires the scientific and technological investment to unblock the channels of information circulation.Therefore,based on the integrated disaster management system,this paper provides macro-management suggestions and micro-management response for cities with different characteristics in Northeast China.In addition,this study fills the gap in the field of urban resilience and provides new ideas for urban disaster risk management.The Northeast region government can refer to the research results to take corresponding measures to improve urban resilience,regard the cities as the subject to achieve growth in the prevention and management of disaster risks,and reduce the loss caused by uncertain disaster risks.