Research On Wind-hydro-thermal Energy Complementary Analysis And Carbon Emission Reduction In Northwest China

The development of renewable energy in Northwest China will promote the region to achieve the "double carbon" goal.Studying the energy carbon emissions and driving factors in Northwest China,making full use of local renewable energy and developing clean electricity can provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of local carbon dioxide emission reduction plans.By analyzing the trend and driving factors of carbon dioxide emissions in Northwest China,this study explores the in-depth reasons that affect carbon dioxide emissions and carbon emission reduction.According to the complementary characteristics of wind power and runoff hydropower,a multi-energy complementary capacity optimization configuration model with the goal of maximizing clean energy power generation is established.The carbon dioxide emissions and emission reduction potential of the power system under different power capacity configurations are calculated.The results are as follows:(1)The distribution of urbanization development and carbon intensity in different regions of China is unbalanced,showing the characteristics of contiguous distribution.The carbon intensity is higher in the areas with lower urbanization stage in the north and lower in the areas with higher urbanization stage in the southeast.The global Moran index of carbon intensity of 30 provinces and autonomous regions in mainland China is 0.338,and through the 1%significance test,it shows that the carbon intensity between provinces shows strong spatial dependence.Through local spatial autocorrelation analysis,it is found that the northwest region is in a high-high aggregation area,and the carbon intensity level in the northwest region is high,and it is easy to produce spatial spillover effects and affect carbon dioxide emissions in adjacent areas.Taking Gansu as a typical area to analyze the role of driving factors of carbon dioxide emissions,it is found that energy intensity factors have a significant effect on carbon dioxide emission reduction,and economic development factors are the main factors promoting carbon dioxide emissions.The proportion of raw coal and coke consumption in Gansu decreased significantly in 2018 compared with 2005.The proportion of crude oil,diesel and natural gas consumption increased,and the energy structure changed.However,due to the increase of overall energy consumption,energy structure factors did not play a significant role in inhibiting carbon dioxide emissions.(2)Aiming at the randomness and complexity of the output time series of runoff hydropower stations,an ESMD-LSSVM combined model is established based on the pole symmetric mode decomposition method(ESMD)and the least squares support vector machine(LSSVM)for daily output prediction.Compared with the single prediction model,the combined model can effectively extract the output characteristics in the time series,improve the generalization ability of the combined model,and make the prediction of the output mutation point in the time series more accurate.Due to the strong volatility and randomness of wind power,this study uses three indicators of daily output mean,information entropy and average fluctuation intensity of wind power output to characterize the fluctuation characteristics of wind power output.Based on this,the fluctuation scene is divided.Finally,the Monte Carlo Markov chain method is used to construct the wind power daily output time series.By comparing with the historical wind power output sequence,it is found that this method can better reflect the distribution characteristics and fluctuation characteristics of the original output sequence.(3)A multi-energy complementary capacity optimization model is established with the goal of maximizing the output of renewable energy.The optimal scheme of capacity configuration of wind power,runoff hydropower and thermal power in a power system in Gansu Province is analyzed.Compared with wind power only and runoff hydropower only,it is found that the consumption rate of runoff hydropower and wind power is improved after the wind-water complementary power generation is connected to the power grid.The consumption rate of hydropower is increased by 2.12%,and the consumption rate of wind power is increased by 7.99%.Compared with single wind power or runoff hydropower,the carbon dioxide emission reduction potential of the two complementary power generation is the largest.Under the optimal capacity configuration of the multi-energy complementary power generation system,44.09%of the carbon dioxide emissions in the power system of the region can be reduced.Compared with single runoff hydropower and single wind power,the emission reduction potential is increased by 2.87%and 23.04%respectively.