| China is currently in such a rapid stage of industrialization and urbanization, that the energy problem of related carbon emissions became increasingly prominent. In this context, this study selected Jilin province which has strong regional representative as the research object. On the basis of driving factors analysis of the typical industries’ carbon emissions, we conducted a further research that how final energy demand and carbon emissions will change in Jilin province during the new normal phase of the development, to provide advice for the low carbon development policies and measures in similar districts. Meanwhile, the representative industries in Jilin province were selected for the research that the low carbon technological demand responding to climate change, and the research results of this part were combined with the policy proposals for low carbon development mentioned above, forming the comprehensive low carbon economic development strategy in Jilin Province, which provides reference and theoretical basis for the establishment and implementation of the 13 th Five-Year Plan in Jilin province addressing climate change.Main research content of this article consisted of four parts: " Driving factor analysis of typical manufacturing industries’ carbon dioxide intensity in Jilin province based on LMDI-Ⅱ", " Driving factor analysis of transport sectors’ carbon emissions in Jilin province", "Research on the trend of energy demand and carbon emissions in the context of the new normal phase", " Comprehensive development strategy responding to climate changes in Jilin province ".The industrial structure is dominated by heavy industries which had the high energy intensity in Jilin province, resulting in a large amount of CO2. Recently the transportation sector obtains an unprecedented development, transportation sector’s growth rate of energy consumption and CO2 emissions is far more than other industries. Considering the above situation, we conducted driving factors analysis of carbon emission related indicators of typical manufacturing industries and transport main sectors in Jilin province. On the basis the interpretation of characteristics of the new economic normal, four different groups of scenarios reflecting the new normal phase’s char-acteristics layer by layer were established, which provided a reference for simulating change trends of energy carbon emission in new normal development stage of Jilin Province. The above research laid the foundation for the policy of low carbon economic development in Jilin province. Part IV established the scientific and technological demands responding to climate changes, based on the actual conditions, combining with international low carbon technology development strategy and national low carbon science and technology overall plan. The research results of Part IV and low carbon development policy obtained from the previous three parts built a more comprehensive development strategy responding to climate changes in Jilin province.(1)The result of Part I showed that the decreasing amplitudes of most typical industries were more than 50%, while as typical energy efficient industries, the pharmaceutical industry and food processing industry had limited decline, their low-carbon production level was superior to most industries. In most cases, the overall development of the industry indeed led to a significant increase in the level of its low-carbon production, but if the industry’s own low-carbon production capacity had reached a high level, the significance of this drive would be greatly reduced. The adjustments of energy intensity, industrial structure and energy structure inhibited the growth of carbon intensity, and the role of energy intensity was much larger than the other two factors, based on this consideration, the future study should focus on the excavation of industrial carbon emission reduction efforts from the views of industrial restructuring and energy structure optimization. Ferrous metal industry, non-metal industry and chemical industry had the most prominent contributors to energy efficiency improvements, thus greatly promoting the reduction of the integrated carbon emission intensity. Although the change of carbon emission coefficient of pharmaceutical industry accelerated the growth of carbon emission intensity, its effect was very limited and fluctuant, which belonged to the normal reaction affected by the fluctuation of energy market. The variation trend of chemical industry’s contribution to the industrial structure was very similar to that of its contribution to the energy intensity effect. The causes behind the appearance included:(1)The energy consumption level and product structure of the chemical industry were highly vulnerable to the international crude oil market volatility;(2)The global economic crisis;(3)Policy planning guidance in a specific period.(2)The results in Part II indicated that CO2 emissions of transportation industry of Jilin Province and GDP had a significant increase from 2001 to 2012, and they had a significant positive correlation with each other. The changes in economic development, population size and energy structure could drive the growth of CO2 emissions in key transport sectors, where economic growth was a decisive factor in CO2 emissions growth. As the number of resident population continues to slow down, the role of population change in promoting the growth of CO2 emissions in the transportation industry was constantly weakened. The change of energy structure had always promoted the growth of integrated CO2 emissions in the transportation sector, and with the acceleration of the increase of CO2 emission, its decomposition effect had also increased greatly at the same time. However, the energy structure effects of the two types of transport sectors were quite different, which may be due to the country’s infrastructure reform of the railway transport industry and the rapid growth of diesel fuel consumption in the road transport sector.The increase in energy service efficiency and the level change of transport development was continually restraining the growth of CO2 emissions in the transport sector. In addition, the energy intensity effect of railway transportation is far less than that of road transportation, which was related to the economic background of railway industry. The inhibiting effect of transport development effect on the growth of CO2 emissions indirectly reflected the rising trend of low-carbon transport. Considering that low-carbon transportation was one of the important future development goals in transportation, this inhibiting effect will continue for a long time in the future. Different from other influencing factors, the overall effect of traffic structure at each stage had the opposite direction due to the dramatic change of transportation structure, whose underlying cause was that the growth of per capita income and the development of modern logistics industry had greatly enhanced the proportion of comprehensive volume of the circular flow of the road transport sector.(3)The results in Part III revealed that economic development played a decisive role in the change of energy demand, and high-speed economic growth drove the growth of energy demand, and vice versa. The transformation of the economic development power and the implementation of energy-saving and emission-reducing measures could inhibit the growth of energy demand, but its magnitude was far less than the economic development. In the future medium and long term, transportation industry, especially transportation demand for the lives of residents, will maintain a relatively high growth rate. As a result, oil-based energy will replace coal to be the leading role in energy consumption structure. With the steady development of economy and the rising of per capita income level, the demand for energy per capita will continue to grow rapidly. Under the prem-ise of not affecting the economy, a combination of a variety of energy-saving emission reduction measures could reverse the original upward trend of the energy intensity. On the basis of the typical new normal scenario, ignore the huge difference between the Jilin Province and developed countries in the power generation structure and power transmission efficiency, and indiscriminately imitate the development experience of energy consumption structure of developed countries to adjust the local energy structure will lead to the rising of the total CO2 emissions of Jilin Province instead of decline. The simulation results of carbon emission intensity meant that although Jilin Province shows some emission reduction potential, it still had a considerable gap compared with the developed areas in China. Therefore, the Jilin Provincial Government should further intensify its efforts on the basis of this study, to ensure the realization of the overall emission reduction targets.(4)Part IV detailed the specific technology demands of typical manufacturing, the main transport sectors and agriculture sector in dealing with climate change:(1)It should give full play to the leading role of local enterprises to promote the mature energy-saving and emission reduction technology, and deepen the industrial chain in the building of circular economy.(2)The science and technology needs of the transportation industry to cope with climate change are composed of exploitation of new energy resources and technological research of the vehicle technology.(3)In the field of agricultural, we should first build ecological barrier, change the mode of forestry development. Take the maintenance of health farmland ecosystem and the realization of sustainable agricultural development as the basic objective of the development of agricultural production, and promote the development and utilization of related technology projects.The policy measures for the development of low carbon economy in Jilin province consisted of three parts that low carbon industry development policy, low carbon transport development policy and comprehensive development policy:(1)Rely on the industry to promote the level of low carbon production, giving priority to develop industries with high levels, focus on mining emission reduction potential of energy structure optimization and industrial structure adjustment.(2)From the three aspects of energy efficiency, transportation structure and energy structure promote the overall level of low carbon transport.(3)By means of optimization of the industrial structure and economic transition to improve energy-saving and emission reduction related work, in addition, offer certain policy treatment to relevant policies. Take the update of regional eletricity system as the key of optimization of energy structure, and popularize the low carbon life style. |
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