Capacity Planning Model And Carbon Peak Path Of Provincial Thermal Power Under Carbon Peak And Carbon Neutrality

Faced with the increasingly severe situation of climate change,China has put forward the goal of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality,striving to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.As the largest source of carbon emissions in the energy system,the power industry is under tremendous pressure to make a low-carbon transition.In this context,the intermittent and fluctuating penetration of new energy sources will increase significantly,bringing impact to the safe and stable operation of the power system.Thermal power,as a stable power source,can play a flexible regulating role to support the stable operation of the power system in conjunction with the new energy output.To this end,this paper constructs a model of thermal power capacity planning considering the time-series operating characteristics of load and new energy generation,and analyses the carbon peak path of thermal power,so as to provide reference suggestions for the medium-and long-term low-carbon transition of power in provinces with thermal power as the main power source.Firstly,this paper establishes a medium-and long-term electricity demand forecasting model based on the grey wolf optimisation-support vector regression machine.Using S province as a case,this paper forecasts the provincial electricity consumption of the whole society from 2022 to 2035.The IPCC inventory method is used to measure the historical carbon emissions of thermal power in the provincial area,and three different carbon emission scenarios are set according to the targets of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Secondly,based on the time-series variation characteristics of a high proportion of new energy output,a model of provincial thermal power capacity planning embedded with 8760-hour time-series production simulation is established.And the results of the above study are used as the base parameters of the model.The model aims to minimise the total investment and operating costs of the power system.It considers capacity planning of multiple energy subjects such as thermal,hydro,wind,photovoltaic and energy storage.This model takes investment planning,operating characteristics and carbon emissions as constraints.It also takes into account the operating flexibility of thermal units in the constraints,and aggregates thermal units of different types and capacities into thermal clusters to simplify the solution.Finally,the future thermal power planning capacity and thermal power carbon peak path of S province are simulated.The basic power situation of the province is described.And based on the constructed thermal power capacity planning model,a large-scale linear programming model is solved to obtain the thermal power capacity planning results for 2025,2030 and 2035 under different scenarios.It also explores the thermal power carbon peaking path in S province and gives corresponding policy recommendations.The research results show that the grey wolf optimization-support vector regression machine model established in this paper has high prediction accuracy and reliable prediction results in medium and long-term electricity demand forecasting.The provincial thermal power capacity planning model established in this paper has taken into account economic,low-carbon and technical feasibility.It covers a variety of energy subjects,subdivides thermal power units of different types and capacities,and has certain replicability in provincial thermal power capacity planning.The model takes into account the flexibility constraints of thermal power operation,which is more in line with the actual production and operation than models that ignore flexibility constraints.Under the scenarios of carbon peak,the installed thermal power generation mix in S province will change by 2035,with the share of installed coal power capacity decreasing and the share of installed gas power capacity increasing in overall thermal power capacity.The overall thermal power utilisation hours will decline by 2035.The early timing of carbon peak and the stringency of carbon emissions will influence the outcome of power capacity planning in S province,and the share of carbon emissions from gas power will increase.