A Study Of Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency And Its Determinants In Guangdong Province

Agricultural production is an important guarantee of food security and social stability.However,intensive agricultural production also produces carbon emissions,leading to climate change,and has a serious impact on the social environment and agriculture itself.Although Guangdong Province is not a major agricultural province,the unsustainable agricultural process produces a large amount of carbon emissions.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in Guangdong and identify its influencing factors for regional carbon emission reduction.In view of the fragmentation and methodological bias of traditional agricultural carbon emission research,this study uses non-parametric data envelopment model combined with spatial statistical analysis method to systematically study the intensity,efficiency and driving factors of carbon emissions from the time and space dimensions.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)Through accounting analysis,it is found that during 2010-2019,the agricultural carbon emissions of Guangdong Province have obvious temporal and spatial heterogeneity.From the perspective of time changes,agricultural carbon emissions reached their maximum in 2015,with emissions of 7.5239 million tons.In 2019,carbon emissions were the lowest,with 6.2989 million tons.Overall,agricultural emissions showed a downward trend;From spatial distribution analysis,the agricultural carbon emissions in Shenzhen,Zhuhai,and Dongguan are relatively low,while those in Zhanjiang,Maoming,and Qingyuan are relatively high.(2)Through nonparametric analysis,it is found that in 2010-2019,Guangdong’s agricultural carbon emission efficiency also has temporal and spatial heterogeneity.From the perspective of temporal change,the agricultural carbon emission efficiency in 2011 is the highest,reaching 0.9000,and in 2019,the agricultural carbon emission efficiency is the lowest,0.6661.The agricultural carbon emission efficiency in the study period shows a fluctuating and decreasing trend;From the analysis of spatial differences,the average efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Zhuhai,Meizhou,and Dongguan cities is relatively high,while the average efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Foshan,Qingyuan,and Zhongshan cities is relatively low.(3)Identifying the driving forces of agricultural carbon emissions found that there were significant differences in the driving forces of carbon emissions on the spatial scale.From the provincial scale,the area of natural disasters,the area of natural disasters,GDP,population and effective irrigation area had a negative correlation on the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions.The disposable income of farmers,urbanization rate and machine-tillage area have a positive correlation with agricultural carbon emission efficiency.From the perspective of regional scale,the disposable income of farmers,the area of natural disasters,the area of natural disasters,GDP,urbanization rate and the regression coefficient of mechanized farming area in the Pearl River Delta region are positive,indicating that these factors have a positive effect on the agricultural carbon emission efficiency in the Pearl River Delta region;The regression coefficients of fanners’disposable income,population,urbanization rate and machine-tillage area in the west and east wing areas are positive;The regression coefficient of farmers’ disposable income,population and area of mechanized farming in five cities in the mountain area is positive.It shows that rural per capita disposable income has a positive impact on the four regions.(4)Through sensitivity analysis of the DEA model,it was found that there are significant differences in the internal driving factors of agricultural carbon emission efficiency in different regions of Guangdong Province.Among them,irrigation conditions,pesticide and fertilizer use are the main driving factors,indicating that improving agricultural irrigation conditions and reducing pesticide and fertilizer use in Guangdong Province are key factors for achieving carbon emission reduction goals in agriculture.(5)Research has found a significant correlation between carbon emission intensity,emission efficiency,and driving forces.At the same time,there is a synergistic and trade-off relationship between agricultural carbon emissions,agricultural water pollution,and agricultural food security goals.Based on this,a smart agricultural climate policy implementation path that adapts to local conditions and considers regional differences is proposed.However,the verification of agricultural carbon emissions and the analysis of efficiency and driving factors,as well as the sensitivity and regionality of the evaluation results to model methods and parameters,as well as the dynamic nature of agricultural carbon emissions in terms of technology and environment,require further improvement.