| Global climate change has become the biggest natural environmental problem of the 21 st century,and humanity will have to face a series of extreme weather challenges caused by climate change.Land use change will affect the carbon cycle process to a certain extent,as well as the carbon source and carbon sink.Therefore,land use change is the main reason for the change of carbon emissions.The the Pearl River Xijiang Economic Belt is an important bridge between Southwest China and South China,and also an important strategic fulcrum for the transformation and upgrading of the the Pearl River Delta.Therefore,this paper takes the the Pearl River Xijiang Economic Belt as the research area.Based on the analysis of land use changes in 11 cities within the the Pearl River Xijiang Economic Belt from 2000 to 2020,combined with the direct factor method and the indirect factor method,this paper calculates the carbon sources,carbon sinks and their spatio-temporal change characteristics generated by land use changes.Then,based on the Kaya identity principle,the LMDI decomposition model is used to study and analyze the relevant factors that affect land use carbon emissions,as well as the impact effects.Finally,the IPAT model is used to simulate the carbon emissions of land use under different scenarios in the future.According to the regional carbon emission reduction goals and combined with the simulation results,development suggestions for achieving the future carbon emission reduction goals of the the Pearl River Xijiang Economic Belt are proposed.The research has resulted in the following conclusion:(1)The cultivated land,forest land and grassland in the the Pearl River Xijiang Economic Belt are mainly distributed in the west(Guangxi part)of the study area,the construction land in the west(Guangxi part)is relatively scattered,and the construction land in the east(Guangdong part)is relatively concentrated.From 2000 to 2020,the land use dynamics of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water area,and unused land in the research area were negative,and the change in area quantity showed a decreasing trend.The land use dynamics of construction land was positive,and the change in area quantity showed an increasing trend.From2000 to 2020,the proportion of land use types in the land use structure of the the Pearl River Xijiang Economic Belt from large to small is forest land,cultivated land,grassland,construction land,water area and unused land.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the largest type of carbon source land in the the Pearl River Xijiang Economic Belt was construction land,and carbon emissions continued to increase.The largest type of carbon sink land was forest land,accounting for more than 90% of the total carbon sink.The carbon absorption of grassland,water area and unused land was far lower than that of forest land,and the role of unused land in carbon sink was the smallest.The overall growth trend of land use carbon emissions in the research area from 2000 to 2020 is slow growth and medium growth,with a relatively slow growth trend of land use carbon emissions.In terms of net carbon emissions,by 2020,the cities in the the Pearl River Xijiang Economic Belt that belong to heavy emission areas are Guangzhou,the cities that belong to high emission areas are Foshan,the cities that belong to medium emission areas are Nanning,the cities that belong to light emission areas are Liuzhou,and the cities that belong to micro emission areas are Baise,Chongzuo,Laibin,Guigang,Wuzhou,Zhaoqing,Yunfu.From 2000 to 2020,the spatial correlation of land use carbon emissions in the the Pearl River Xijiang Economic Belt gradually weakened,and the spatial agglomeration state became lower and lower.By 2020,the local spatial autocorrelation in the study area will weaken to the lowest level in the study period.(3)From 2000 to 2020,the net carbon emissions of the the Pearl River Xijiang Economic Belt increased by 71.6468 million tons.Economic level is the biggest factor in promoting the net carbon emissions.The cumulative contribution value is 9.50457 million tons,with a contribution rate of 647.50%,Only the factor of land use structure has a inhibitory effect on net carbon emissions,with a cumulative contribution value of-121.5509 million tons and a contribution rate of9.17%.The absolute contribution values of the influencing factors of land use carbon emissions in the research area from 2000 to 2020 are in descending order: land use structure,economic level,land use carbon emissions,land use efficiency,and population size.The absolute contribution rates of various influencing factors to carbon emissions are in descending order: economic level,land use carbon emissions intensity,land use efficiency,population size,and land use structure.(4)Among the emission reduction targets of the the Pearl River Xijiang Economic Belt in 2025,the economic carbon emission intensity is the most difficult indicator of emission reduction,and all emission reduction targets can be achieved under the positive situation of highly implementing energy-saving and emission reduction measures.In the scenario simulation in 2030,only the per capita carbon emission intensity in the the Pearl River Xijiang Economic Belt region failed to achieve the carbon emission reduction target,and the per capita carbon emission intensity still failed to reach the target value under the highly promoted green economy development model.Reducing land carbon emission intensity,improving land use efficiency,optimizing land use structure,adjusting economic development speed,controlling population size and improving population quality should be the focus of future carbon emission reduction work in the the Pearl River Xijiang Economic Belt. |
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