Study On Temporal And Spatial Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emission In The Yangtze River Economic Belt

The increase of carbon emissions is the main factor aggravating global warming.The use of fossil energy promotes the development of heavy industry in the world,but the use of energy produces greenhouse gases,which forms the greenhouse effect,causes global warming and brings a series of ecological and environmental problems to the world,which has become one of the severe problems faced by mankind at present.In recent years,China’s carbon emission reduction effect is remarkable,but energy consumption remains high,and the total amount of energy carbon emission is still in the forefront of the world.In order to mitigate climate change,China has made many efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.In 2020,the Chinese government clearly put forward the goals of "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutralization" at the75 th United Nations General Assembly.The Yangtze River economic belt is a major regional strategy made by China to comply with the development of the times.It is one of the regions with rapid economic development in China.In the early stage of development,industrial production mainly depends on high input of resources,neglecting environmental protection and blindly pursuing development speed,resulting in serious environmental pollution,ecological damage,energy depletion and many other problems,especially the rapid economic development in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River economic belt and the extensive use of fossil energy,resulting in a rapid increase in carbon dioxide emissions,although many carbon emission reduction measures have been taken in the later stage.However,the total carbon emission is still large.In order to solve these problems,the research on the temporal and spatial evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will help to effectively control greenhouse gas emissions,promote economic development and ecological protection,realize regional carbon emission reduction,and strive to reach the peak of carbon emissions as soon as possible.In view of this,this paper takes the Yangtze River economic belt as the research object,calculates the carbon emissions of 130 cities in the Yangtze River economic belt from 2000 to 2019,selects three weight matrices of spatial adjacency,geographical distance and economic distance,analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions and spatial agglomeration characteristics in combination with Geo Da software,and constructs STIRPAT model based on the population,urbanization level,advanced industrial structure,foreign trade Based on the20-year data of carbon emission intensity and energy consumption structure,this paper analyzes the impact of various variables on carbon emission of the Yangtze River economic belt by using spatial econometric model,and draws conclusions and suggestions based on the above analysis results.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The carbon emission of the Yangtze River economic belt has been increasing for nearly 20 years.In 2019,the carbon emission was 1125.7091 million tons,including 287.3249 million tons in the upper reaches,264.6477 million tons in the middle reaches and 573.7364 million tons in the lower reaches,accounting for 50.97%of the total carbon emission of the Yangtze River economy.Due to technological progress,the carbon emission intensity has been continuously reduced.The spatial distribution of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River economic belt has not changed significantly,and there are spatial correlations.Among the 130 cities,Shanghai has the largest carbon emissions.Under the three weight matrices,the Moran index of carbon emissions in the past 20 years is greater than 0 and passes the significance test at the significance level of 1%.On the whole,there is a significant spatial positive correlation.The downstream areas show the characteristics of high-high agglomeration and the upstream areas show the characteristics of low-low agglomeration.(2)The real GDP and per capita GDP of the Yangtze River economic belt are increasing,with a large increase;The population distribution in the upper reaches of the region is the largest in the lower reaches,the second in the upper reaches and the smallest in the middle reaches;The average annual growth rate of urbanization from2000 to 2019 is 3.18%;The development mode of tertiary industrial structure has gradually changed from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry,and the degree of industrial structure upgrading is higher and higher;In the past 20 years,the proportion of total import and export in GDP first increased and then decreased,and the proportion of downstream areas was the largest;At present,the Yangtze River economic belt is still dominated by coal consumption,but with the development of energy conservation and emission reduction and low-carbon economy,the proportion of coal consumption in energy consumption is declining.(3)According to the stationarity test,the panel data is stable,and the empirical results of spatial Dobbin model show that population is the main factor affecting the increase of carbon emissions;The level of economic growth and urbanization has a positive effect on carbon emissions in the region and adjacent areas.In the process of economic development,we should pay attention to environmental protection;The higher the degree of advanced industrial structure,the lower the carbon emission in this region.We should actively promote the upgrading of industrial structure,but the advanced industrial structure will increase the carbon emission in adjacent regions;The estimation coefficient of direct and indirect effects of foreign trade on carbon emissions is negative.Foreign trade can bring foreign advanced technology and experience to reduce carbon emissions.The direct effect and spillover effect of carbon emission intensity on carbon emission are positive,and technological progress will inhibit the increase of carbon emission in this region and adjacent areas;The increase in the proportion of coal consumption will increase the carbon emission in this region.We should reduce coal consumption and develop new energy.