Research On The Mitigation Effect Of Low-Carbon City Pilot Policies On Carbon Lock-in

The global climate change caused by excessive carbon dioxide emission gradually affects the ecological environment of nature,and then occupies the space for human development.To tackle climate change,reduce carbon emissions and promote green development,the National Development and Reform Commission has launched the first batch of low-carbon city pilot projects since 2010,and the second and third batch of low-carbon pilot projects in 2012 and2017 respectively.In order to accurately and scientifically evaluate the mitigation effects of pilot policies of low carbon cities on carbon locking,based on the existing studies,this paper expounds the mechanism of pilot policies of low carbon cities on carbon locking,constructs an evaluation index system of urban carbon locking,and measures the comprehensive level of urban carbon locking,taking Chinese cities at the prefecture level and above as samples.This paper empirically studies the direct and indirect effects of pilot policies of low-carbon cities on carbon lock-in levels,and discusses the heterogeneous characteristics of pilot policies of low-carbon cities on mitigation of carbon lock-in effects.The results show that:(1)the low-carbon city pilot policy significantly reduces the carbon lock-in level of the pilot cities.With full consideration of economic development level,urbanization rate,opening-up degree,environmental regulation intensity and the proportion of fiscal expenditure,the implementation of pilot policies of low-carbon cities has a significant negative impact on the carbon lock-in level of pilot cities,with a regression coefficient of0.0228.(2)The mitigation effect of low-carbon city pilot policies on carbon lock-in has obvious heterogeneity,which mainly reduces the carbon lock-in level in eastern regions and nonresource-based cities.The pilot policies significantly reduced the carbon lock-in effect in the eastern and western regions with a regression coefficient of-0.0052,and had no significant effect on the central and northeastern regions.The pilot low-carbon city policy significantly reduces the carbon lock-in level of non-resource-based cities,with a regression coefficient of-0.0141,which is significant at the significance level of 10%.There is no significant impact on resource-based cities.(3)Low-carbon city pilot policies can mitigate the carbon lock-in effect of pilot cities through green technology innovation channels and industrial structure optimization channels.The estimated coefficient of green technology innovation as a moderating variable to mitigate carbon lock-in in pilot cities is-0.0076,which is significant at1% significance level.When industrial structure upgrading is used as the moderating variable,the estimated coefficient of the interaction term between industrial structure upgrading and policy variable is-0202,which is significant at the significance level of 10%.The moderating effect of industrial structure upgrading as the moderating variable on the mitigation locking of pilot policies is not significant.That is to say,the low-carbon city pilot policy alleviates the carbon locking effect of pilot cities mainly by promoting the level of green technology innovation and promoting the advanced industrial structure.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the following suggestions: First,on the basis of fully summarizing the relevant policies and measures for mitigation of carbon locking in pilot cities,the pilot policies of low-carbon cities should be promoted to the whole country,so as to vigorously promote the process of carbon unlocking at the national level.Second,under the premise of overall planning and combining different cities’ economic development level,urbanization process,opening-up degree and other factors,we should promote relevant cities to formulate relevant systems and mechanisms for carbon unlocking,introduce relevant management measures and elaborate operational methods according to local conditions and circumstances.Thirdly,based on the specific reality of the spatial distribution difference of carbon lock-in,pilot policies and preferential measures will be tilted to the central and western regions and northeast regions,so as to prevent the spread of carbon lock-in to the less developed regions in a proactive manner,and avoid the awkward situation of chaos before governance and passive intervention.Fourthly,the differences in resource endowments of different regions should be taken into consideration as an important basis for the policy decision-making of pilot low-carbon cities.The development and utilization of resource-rich areas should be based on scientific,rational and systematic principles.For resource-exhausted cities,the promotion of pilot policies of low-carbon cities should focus on the long-term and sustainability of urban development.Pay particular attention to potential carbon lock-in lockup phenomena.Fifth,we should use green technology innovation as a booster for low-carbon development to stimulate the vitality of innovation and entrepreneurship subjects.In particular,we should make full use of enterprises as incubators of green technology innovation to promote the reduction of carbon lock-in level in pilot cities.Sixth,effectively promote the carbon unlocking process of pilot cities with the effect of industrial structure upgrading.According to the economic law of the development of three industries,relevant policies should guide the industrial development of pilot cities to transform to high-end manufacturing and modern service industries,so as to realize the sustainable and healthy development of economy and society and alleviate the win-win situation of carbon locking of pilot cities.