Analysis On Carbon Reduction Effect Of The Low-carbon Pilot Cities

Nowadays,the global warming situation is becoming increasingly severe,all countries in the world are vigorously promoting the concept of low carbon,actively coping with climate change,controlling greenhouse gas emissions,China has also proposed "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" carbon reduction commitments,issued a number of low-carbon policies.Among them,the National Development and Reform Commission has selected three batches of national low-carbon pilot cities for low-carbon pilots,which makes provinces and cities attach great importance to low-carbon development and make low-carbon implementation.Since the first batch of low-carbon pilot cities involved many provinces and it was difficult to analyze the differences between cities,and the third batch of low-carbon pilot cities lacked data after the implementation of the policy,this thesis analyzed the carbon reduction effect of the second batch of low-carbon pilot cities as the research object.By evaluating the carbon reduction effect of the second batch of low-carbon pilot cities,we can better promote low-carbon work,and it is of great significance for the further promotion of low-carbon cities.In addition,the effect of this policy is also related to whether the commitments of China’s low-carbon emission reduction can be successfully realized.Based on the data of prefecture-level city panels from 2000 to 2016,this thesis analyzes the carbon reduction effect of the second batch of low-carbon pilot cities in detail and comprehensively by synthetic control method.At the same time,methods and measures to reduce carbon emissions were analyzed around four cities with obvious carbon reduction effects.When analyzing the carbon reduction effect of the second batch of low-carbon pilot city policies,it is divided into three levels.The first is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of all the second batch of low-carbon pilot cities,the second is to classify the second batch of low-carbon pilot cities and analyze different types of cities,and the third is to conduct separate analysis of all pilot cities.For the first two levels of research,it is necessary to integrate multiple cities into a "comprehensive city" in a weighted manner,and then use the composite control results of "integrated cities" to express the policy effects of this type of city.In addition,when using the synthetic control method,in order to obtain the ideal synthetic city,this thesis expands the indicators of the original control group city to produce a new control group city,and then the original control group city and the newly generated control group city are merged together.After obtaining the policy effect,The robustness test is divided into two parts: the test of cities with significant policy effects and the test of carbon reduction effects of different types of cities,the former’s robustness test is to combine different control variables for synthetic control studies,if the results are still significant under different control variables,it means that the significant carbon reduction effect of the city is stable.The latter’s robustness test is to integrate a certain type of city into different "integrated cities" through different weighted methods,and then use the synthetic control method for different "integrated cities" to obtain policy effects.The conclusion of this thesis shows that:(1)Combined with all the second batch of low-carbon pilot cities,carbon emissions have declined to some extent after 2012,but the placebo results show that the decline in carbon emissions of the second batch of low-carbon pilot cities may not be due to the selection of these cities as low-carbon pilot cities.(2)When studying the carbon reduction effect of different types of cities after being selected as low-carbon pilot cities,it is found that the more developed cities in the second batch of low-carbon pilot cities have better carbon reduction effects due to the selection of low-carbon pilot cities,while the carbon reduction effects of intermediate cities and poorer cities are relatively poor.(3)In a separate analysis of each of the second batch of low-carbon pilot cities,it was found that the carbon reduction effect of Beijing,Qinhuangdao,Jincheng and Guangyuan was selected as low-carbon pilot cities.The robustness results show that when analyzing the comprehensive effects of low-carbon pilot cities,the super cities like Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou should be excluded for analysis,and the better carbon reduction effects of more developed cities and the significant carbon reduction effects of Beijing,Qinhuangdao,Jincheng and Guangyuan are very stable.Through the analysis of the carbon reduction measures of the above four cities,the following policy recommendations are drawn: vigorously promote the upgrading of industrial structure,develop low-carbon industries in combination with regional characteristics,optimize the energy consumption structure,accelerate the development of new energy,accelerate technological innovation,improve energy utilization,establish low-carbon demonstration communities and parks,and strengthen the public’s low-carbon awareness.