Verification Of Carbon Emission Reduction Effect And Mechanism Of Low-carbon City Pilot

In order to curb climate warming,actively assume the responsibility of a large country and achieve the goals of "Carbon Peak" and "Carbon Neutralization",China launched the pilot work of low-carbon cities in three batches in 2010,2012 and 2017.Accurately and objectively evaluate the carbon emission reduction effect of the pilot low-carbon cities and identify the relevant paths of emission reduction,which is of great significance to accelerate the construction of low-carbon cities,promote the green transformation of China’s industrial structure and promote high-quality economic development.In order to accurately and objectively evaluate the carbon emission reduction effect of lowcarbon city pilot,this paper first summarizes the literature of domestic and foreign scholars on carbon emission reduction,expounds the theoretical mechanism of low-carbon city pilot affecting carbon emission,and then calculates and analyzes the temporal and spatial change trend of urban carbon emission in China by using IPCC method based on urban energy consumption.On this basis,24 second batch of low-carbon pilot cities were selected as the experimental group and 190 non-pilot cities as the control group.Based on the Chinese urban panel data from 2003 to 2017,PSM-DID was used to evaluate the carbon emission reduction effect of the pilot and further investigate its heterogeneity.At the same time,the total brightness of urban night lights from 2003 to 2018 was used to express the urban carbon emission,and the carbon emission reduction effect of the pilot was verified again.In order to explore the path of low-carbon city pilot affecting carbon emission reduction,this paper uses the multiintermediary model to identify the emission reduction mechanism from the three paths of fossil energy consumption reduction,technological innovation and industrial structure optimization,and finally uses the spatial econometric model to investigate the spatial effect of low-carbon city pilot.The study found that:(1)From 2003 to 2017,the city’s carbon dioxide emissions and per capita carbon dioxide emissions were on the rise as a whole,but the growth rate of the two decreased after 2013;Energy consumption per unit of GDP has decreased year by year,which confirms that China’s carbon reduction measures since the 12 th Five Year Plan have achieved certain positive results.(2)Urban carbon emissions show a state of point aggregation,the difference between regions decreases,but the difference within regions increases.The Northeast old industry base,the Bohai economic circle,coal producing areas such as Shanxi Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration are high-carbon cities.Energy consumption per unit of GDP shows the characteristics of high in the northwest region and low in the southeast region.The carbon emission intensity of southeast coastal cities is significantly lower than that of cities in the northwest and northeast.(3)Since the implementation of the second batch of pilot low-carbon cities,the carbon emissions of the pilot cities have been reduced by an average of 10.4% compared with other cities,which proves that the pilot low-carbon cities have a significant carbon emission reduction effect.The empirical results obtained from the urban lighting data from 2003 to 2018 are consistent with this conclusion,which proves that the carbon emissions calculated from the urban energy data from2003 to 2017 are robust.(4)The effect of pilot projects in municipalities,provincial capital cities and cities specifically designated in the state plan is better than that in ordinary cities;Compared with non-pilot cities,the carbon emission level of pilot cities in the eastern region decreased by 15.4% at the significant level of 10%,and that in the central and western regions was not significant;The carbon emission reduction effect of the first,second and third tier cities is significant,while that of the fourth and fifth tier cities is not significant,and the carbon emission reduction effect of the first and second tier cities is 5.8 percentage points higher than that of the third tier cities.(5)The mechanism test shows that the pilot has a significant impact on carbon emissions by reducing fossil energy consumption,improving the level of technological innovation and optimizing the industrial structure,and the intermediary effect of industrial structure optimization is significantly higher than the other two paths.(6)The Spatial Dobbin Model shows that the pilot of low-carbon cities has a negative spatial spillover effect on carbon emissions,which shows that the halo effect and warning effect on other cities in the region during the pilot implementation of low-carbon cities are greater than the "Carbon Leakage" between cities in the region,and reduce carbon emissions by optimizing industrial structure,driving technological innovation,regional collaborative governance and other means.In order to promote the "Double Carbon" work and form a development pattern of resource conservation and environmental protection,combined with the research conclusions,this paper holds that:(1)we should summarize the relevant experience of carbon emission reduction in pilot cities,further expand the pilot scope of low-carbon cities,promote the low-carbon process and achieve the goal of "Carbon Peak" as soon as possible.(2)Cities at different levels should choose appropriate low-carbon construction paths in combination with their own characteristics and the main tasks of the current economic development stage.(3)When formulating emission reduction policies,we need to take multiple measures at the same time,pay attention to structural emission reduction,optimize the energy system,encourage technological innovation,and play a cooperative role in carbon emission reduction.(4)Comprehensively promote cross regional cooperation among cities,and build a collaborative linkage mechanism for energy conservation and emission reduction according to geographical location and position in the industrial chain.(5)While formulating carbon reduction targets according to local conditions,we should give certain technical assistance and financial subsidies to small and medium-sized cities such as the central and western regions and the fourth and fifth tier cities,promote the industrial development model of "Green Low-carbon + Internet",and shorten the cycle of synchronous growth of economic development and carbon emissions.