Study On Risk Evolution And Emergency Mechanism Of Oil And Gas Storage And Transportation Base

Over the past 20 years,China’s hazardous chemical industry has been expanding in scale,and hazardous chemical accidents have occurred frequently.Despite the gradual strengthening of management efforts by the government and enterprises,serious accidents still occur.In order to explore the occurrence and development law of hazardous chemical emergencies in China,using official data and based on 195 cases of hazardous chemical accidents occurring in China from 2000 to 2020,this thesis makes a statistical analysis of hazardous chemical accidents occurring in China in recent 20 years.The entropy weight method and approximate ideal solution ranking method(TOPSIS)were used to calculate and evaluate the systematic risk of hazardous chemicals industry.In order to deeply explore the risk law of hazardous chemicals and the evolution mechanism of emergencies,195 hazardous chemicals accidents of greater or greater magnitude occurred in China from2000 to 2020 were taken as examples.Firstly,based on the basic data of hazardous chemical emergencies,the overall risk law of hazardous chemicals accidents of greater or greater magnitude in China was analyzed.The WBS-RBS method was proposed to identify the causes of hazardous chemical accidents and divide them into four subsystems: human,machine,environment and pipe,and illustrate the risk factors of each subsystem.Then,entropy weight method and approximate ideal solution ranking method(TOPSIS)were used to calculate and evaluate the systematic risk of China’s hazardous chemical industry.In order to deeply explore the development law and emergency response mechanism of hazardous chemical emergencies,the evolution process of accident risk is analyzed based on the chain effect model of hazardous chemical emergencies.Taking the evolution process of typical major explosion accidents at home and abroad as an example,this thesis studies the transition evolution process of low risk grade events and high risk grade events,constructs the transition evolution model of typical sudden chemical accident,and uses it to analyze the oil spill accident of an oil tanker terminal in Ao Shan.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)In recent years,there is a large regional difference and obvious seasonal difference in the occurrence of accidents with large or above hazardous chemicals in China;The risk of hazardous chemical accidents is fluctuating and rising,and the safety construction of human and management subsystem is weak,so improvement measures should be taken to reduce the risk of accidents.(2)Put forward transition evolution model of hazardous chemical emergency risk.In the transition process of chemical accident,transition of chemical accident has obvious risk doubling effect.The time between risk transition nodes in the early stage of the accident is much longer than that in the later stage of the accident.The implementation of response measures in the early stage of accident development is more beneficial to control the situation of accident development.Therefore,an emergency mechanism based on transition evolution model is put forward in order to provide references for state of affairs control and emergency rescue of major chemical accident in our country.(3)Taking the fire accident of a cruise ship dock in Ao Shan as an example,the accident simulation results show that if the oil spill at the dock is not effectively controlled,risk transition will occur,which will have an impact on the adjacent docks,resulting in interlocking reaction.