Spatial-temporal Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Agricultural Net Carbon Sink In Shandong Province

In recent years,warming caused by greenhouse gases has become the focus of global attention.Reducing the concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO₂,CH₄ in the atmosphere is the key to achieve carbon emission reduction and mitigate global warming.Agricultural production is widespread and universal,and it has become the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions.Shandong Province is a big agricultural province in the eastern part of our country.The consumption of agricultural resources is large and the task of agricultural energy saving and emission reduction is heavy.This paper studies the problem of agricultural net carbon sink in Shandong Province,and puts forward corresponding suggestions in order to realize the low carbonation development of agriculture in Shandong Province.In addition,analysis and comparison of agricultural net carbon sick in different regions of the whole province,it is helpful to formulate different policies of reducing emissions and increasing foreign exchange rate at the middle-view level.This article takes Shandong Province agriculture（planting industry,poultry industry）as the investigation object,based on the four main carbon sources of 25 kinds of main carbon sources and 17 kinds of carbon sequestration of main crops in farmland utilization,paddy field,livestock farming and straw burning,this study calculates the carbon emissions and carbon sink from 2000 to 2016 in Shandong Province and that of 17 prefectural cities in Shandong Province in 2000,2007 and 2016.On the basis of the above the net carbon sink,the intensity of net carbon sink and carbon sink level were further calculated,and the characteristics of its spatial-temporal evolution were analyzed.The main contributing factors affecting agricultural net carbon sink in Shandong province were further studied by using grey correlation degree analysis method.Finally,according to the above analysis results,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the development of low carbonization of agriculture.The results show that:（1）The total net carbon sink,the intensity of net carbon sink and the level of carbon sink in Shandong Province showed a fluctuating and rising trend during the period of 2000-2016,all of which experienced three different stages of change.That is,the period of decline（2000-2002）-the period of rapid growth（2003-2008）-the period of slow growth（2009-2016）.According to the general change trend,carbon sink is the main carbon effect,the change of net carbon sink in agriculture is mainly influenced by carbon sink,which makes the change trend of net carbon sink basically consistent with that of carbon sink.（2）Based on the temporal characteristics of net carbon sink in various cities,the regional differences of net carbon sink in agriculture are obvious and showed a trend expansion with time,and there were four types of regions:continuous increase,fluctuating increase,fluctuating decreasing and continuous decrease;Based on the time series variation characteristics of the intensity of net carbon sink in various cities,the regional differences of the net carbon sink intensities in agriculture are obvious and also showed a trend expansion with time,and there were two types of regions:continuous increase and fluctuating decrease;Based on the temporal characteristics of carbon sink levels in various cities,except Qingdao and Zaozhuang,the carbon sink levels of all prefectural-cities have changed greatly in the past10 years,and the other 15 cities have floated up and down in 1³ places,Liaocheng had the highest level of carbon sinks in 2007 and 2016,Taian followed.（3）Based on spatial distribution features,the net carbon sink and net carbon sink intensities of each city were divided into five grades:lowest,lower,medium,higher and highest.From 2000 to 2016,the spatial distribution pattern of net carbon lowest sink area was relatively stable,while other four grades of areas changed greatly.The highest net carbon sink area was concentrated in west of Shandong Province,and the higher net carbon sink area in the southeast;4)The spatialdistribution pattern of net carbon sink intensities changed greatly,the highest intensity area of net carbon sink expanded from the middle of Shandong to the west and southwest of Shandong Province,and the higher intensity of net carbon sink from the middle to the southeast.（4）The influencing factors of agricultural net carbon sink in Shandong Province were analyzed by grey correlation degree model.The correlation degree distribution between agricultural net carbon sequestration and various factors in Shandong Province was between0.58 and 0.92,according to the order of correlation degree r_i from large to small,they are per capita consumption of agricultural materials,agricultural structure,agrotechnical level,agricultural employed population and per capita agricultural GDP.