Research On Progress Early Warning Model Of Emergency Rescue In High-speed Railway

High-speed railway trains are fast and personnel-intensive.In the event of a traffic accident,the railway department must carry out rescue operations as quickl y as possible to reduce the follow-up impact.At present,the emergency rescue and disposal of high-speed railway mainly depends on the command and experience of emergency managers,but the command experience of different managers is obviously different,and there are many participating departments in the emergency process,due to the poor exchange of information on the spot,the rescue effect caused by inefficiency may be difficult to guarantee.The emergency management department of high-speed railway must effectively supervise the rescue process of traffic accidents,so as to ensure that the emergency rescue can be completed in time.The specific research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Emergency situation assessment of high-speed railway traffic incidents: According to the causal dependence of the key events in the emergency response of the high-speed railway accident,the accident site factors that affect the choice of the rescue scheme are taken as the parent node,and the possible rescue scheme as the child node to establish the BN network model.Considering the uncertainty of the field information in the initial stage of the sudden accident,the intuitionistic fuzzy number is used to describe the field information,the parameter space of the uncertain event is constructed,and the intuitionistic fuzzy Bayesian network(IFBN)model of emergency rescue is established to estimate the situation,and the score functions of IFBN output nodes are compared to predict the rescue plan.(2)Forecast and early warning of emergency rescue and disposal of high-speed railway:The intuitionistic fuzzy probability of IFBN output node is introduced into GERTS as the branch probability of network node,which makes it have the ability to express uncertainty.Then the emergency rescue network is modeled according to the logic of the emergency rescue network,and the branch activity is selected according to the branch probability combined with Monte Carlo thought to predict the emergency response time.At the same time,the critical chain schedule management idea of project schedule management is applied to the emergency management of high-speed railway to monitor and early warning the emergency disposal.In this paper,when setting the buffer interval,the influence of process time elasticity is considered on the basis of the traditional root variance method,and the early warning trigger point is dynamically set up considering the relationship between task completion and buffer consumption.finally,the progress deviation rate is used as the dynamic early warning index of the monitoring node to judge the development trend of rescue delay.The establishment of IFBN model can reason according to the uncertain information of the accident scene,the critical chain project management method can reasonably eliminate the safety time in the estimated time of the rescue process and set the buffer interval,the dynamic setting of the buffer early warning trigger point can avoid the early warning caused by the small trigger point in the later stage of the rescue,and comparing the progress deviation rate of the adjacent monitoring points can reduce the unnecessary early warning leading to excessive change of the emergency plan.This paper predicts the emergency rescue time of high-speed railway,which can provide a basis for the adjustment of driving plan and assist emergency managers to make scientific decisions.Early warning of emergency disposal can help emergency managers to have a more in-depth understanding of the actual situation of the rescue,take effective measures in time to improve the efficiency of the rescue and ensure the timely completion of the rescue.