Dynamic Simulation Research Of Shanghai’s Green Transition Under The Target Of Carbon Emission Reduction

With the continuous acceleration of ecological civilization construction and urban social development,green transformation has become an inevitable trend of global urban development.Urban green transformation is closely related to low-carbon emission reduction.To achieve green development,cities must implement the idea of ecological civilization,properly handle the relationship between development and carbon emission reduction,and incorporate the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" into the overall economic and social development.So the stable economic development and the improvement of environmental quality can be synergistic.Since China has been deeply involved in the global response to climate change,the logic of urban development has undergone systematic restructuring.Cities are the main battlefield for reducing carbon emissions,and the trend of carbon emissions changes is the key to the green transformation of cities.Therefore,it is necessary to incorporate carbon flow into the process of urban green transformation,and rationally allocate limited urban resources to promote the coordinated development of economy,resources,environment and society.Taking Shanghai as an example,this paper uses the system dynamics method to simulate the urban green transition process under the carbon emission reduction target.The carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Shanghai from 2014 to 2019 were calculated using the IPCC general method;The city was divided into economy-energy-population-policy subsystems,and the dynamic model of Shanghai’s low-carbon green transition system was constructed by identifying key variables;Using Sensitivity test,screening effective control parameters for scenario plan design;Designing six development plans,exploring the green transition process of Shanghai under different plans,and predicting the time when Shanghai will reach its carbon peak.The study found that: The research on urban low-carbon and green transformation based on system dynamics has passed the historical test and robustness test,and the model is feasible;In addition to the industrial structure and energy structure,carbon trading prices,penalized prices,the science and technology investment ratio,free quota ratio,and per capita energy consumption are highly sensitive,and can be identified as control parameters that affect Shanghai’s green transformation carbon emission system;Shanghai is expected to achieve a carbon peak in 2023 under a natural development state,completing the expected planning goal of achieving carbon peak by 2025;Shanghai will vigorously develop environmental protection technologies,supplemented by policy measures,adjust the industrial structure and energy structure according to demand,and strive to achieve coordinated development in all aspects,so that the carbon peak can be achieved ahead of schedule,and the urban green transformation process will be accelerated.