Multi-scale Statistical Modeling Of The Impact Of Economic Development On Ecosystem Services

Economic development and ecological protection is the dialectical unity,economic development impact on ecosystem services has been the focus of attention of academics and policy makers.Especially in recent years,along with the rapid economic development after a series of ecological environment problems,to explore the long sequence within the influence of economic development on ecosystem services is more attention by academic circles.Ecosystem services and economic development are multilevel,multifaceted and multi-scale complex systems,and their measurement and research are mostly based on a single spatial scale.Considering the classical problem of scale effect in geography,that is,the relationship between ecosystem services and economic development is characterized by potential scale difference,it is of great significance to systematically analyze the impact of economic development on ecosystem services from spatio-temporal and multi-scale perspectives.Taking zhengzhou city as an example,based on the multi-source geographic data in 2000-2015:first of all,the fine spatial scales use night light data to measure the economic development,the use of vegetation net primary productivity(NPP),such as climate,terrain and vegetation data to calculate the carbon sequestration(NPP),the amount of water conservation and water rate typical ecosystem services;Second,give full consideration to the economic development and ecological system and space differences of the scale of the service itself,to build a series of multiscale statistical model and spatial multi-scale model,identify the differences on the impact of economic development on ecosystem services scale characteristics and characteristics of spatial difference and the influence of economic development on ecosystem service is analyzed,Shapley Values method was used to calculate the group contribution degree of natural factors(elevation,slope,precipitation,temperature,grassland and forest land)and man-made factors(road,night light,population,cultivated land,construction land and number of enterprises).Finally,considering the spatial correlation between economic development and ecosystem services,the corresponding spatial multiscale statistical models are constructed respectively,and the spatial effect and scale effect of geographical data are modeled simultaneously,so as to further estimate the impact of economic development on ecosystem services.The results show that:(1)The overall level of economic development has improved,with significant differences in scale characteristics.From 2000 to 2018,the overall level of economic development of Zhengzhou has improved,among which the economic intensity of the main urban areas of the counties and districts has increased most obviously.According to the dynamic growth trend of the economic development level of each township/subdistrict,about 94% of the regions showed a trend of first growth and then decline.In terms of scale characteristics,there are four different stages of change on the whole,but in general,the difference of economic development between different grids in the same town/street is greater than that between different counties and different towns/streets(town/street > county > grid).(2)The changes of different types of ecosystem services have significant spatial and temporal differences and scale differences.NPP showed an increasing trend,while water yield showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest,and water conservation was stable as a whole.NPP and water conservation in about 75% of the regions decreased first and then increased in 89% of the regions,while water yield in about 77% of the regions increased first and then decreased.In terms of the characteristics of scale difference,NPP of Zhengzhou presents as follows: County and township/street scale features in a large extent,affect the grid scale NPP differences(counties > township / > street grid),and the grid scale water rate and the difference of the amount of water conservation are mainly affected by the township streets and counties/the influence of the characteristics of the spatial scales(grid > counties > township/street).(3)Economic development had a negative impact on NPP and water yield,but a positive correlation with water conservation.The variation of NPP was mainly influenced by human factors,while water yield and water conservation were mainly influenced by natural factors.Considering the scale effect and spatial effect,the results were still robust.For NPP changes in Zhengzhou,the contribution of natural factor groups is about 31%,that of human factor groups is about 59%,and that of NPP’s nonlinear evolution trend is about10%.When other conditions remain the same,NPP decreases by 0.43% with 1% increase of light intensity at night,showing a significant negative correlation.About 9% of the variation of water yield was affected by its own development trend,about 40% by the contribution of natural factors,and about 52% by the contribution of human factors.The variation of water conservation was mainly influenced by natural factors(55%),human factors(33%)and its own development trend(12%).Water conservation was mainly influenced by precipitation and land use types.In addition,the impact of economic development on ecosystem services has significant spatial heterogeneity.In general,NPP is higher in the eastern and central parts of Zhengzhou,lower in the southwest and eastern parts of Zhengzhou.From the perspective of township/street and county scale,economic activities in the main urban area of Zhengzhou,Gongyi and Xinmi have the greatest influence on the change of NPP.