| In order to address the problem of global warming,Chinese government pronounced its “carbon neutrality” strategy,unswervingly followed the green and low-carbon development pattern.The carbon emission from agricultural activities is a main source of greenhouse gas.To turn agriculture toward low-carbon plays an important role to achieve the “carbon neutrality” strategy and the “green development” goal.Meanwhile,we need government acts as a leader during the transition of agriculture to low-carbon.As a major initiative in agriculture,rural and farmers,Agricultural Comprehensive Development(ACD)project is also an important way for government finance to support agriculture,the aim is to improve the comprehensive agricultural production capacity and comprehensive benefits,giving consideration to both economic and ecological benefits.Therefore,the study focuses on the relationship between the ACD and the agricultural carbon emission,moreover,study highlights the role played by agricultural technological progress between them.According to consequences from study,I’ll put forward some relevant suggestions for reference.In this thesis,investment amount of ACD is the independent variable,agricultural carbon emission is the dependent variable,and agricultural technological progress is the intermediate variable.First of all,to choose some appropriate input and output variables,estimating Agricultural Total Factor Productivity(ATFP)by using SBM-Malmquist model to quantify the agricultural technology progress.Then,to choose the specific carbon sources in agricultural production and refer the respective coefficients of each carbon source,calculating agricultural carbon emissions by the formula.Lastly,selecting the matching mediating effect model and using empirical analysis methods to test three hypotheses which are based on mechanism analysis between ACD,agricultural carbon emissions and technological progress.The empirical results show that: There is a positive relationship between the investment of ACD and agricultural carbon emission and technological progress.However,there is a reverse relationship between agricultural technological progress and carbon emissions.In other words,the increase of input in ACD will promote the progress of agricultural technology,meanwhile,it has led to an increase in agricultural carbon emissions.But agricultural technological progress(either by itself or as an intermediate variable)can play a positive role in agricultural emission reduction.Given the results obtained above,the study holds that: the proportion of scientific and technological input should be increased in the following ACD work.The related department of ACD project should value and employ agricultural technology to promote the low-carbon agriculture.In addition,the ACD project should also play a demonstrative and guiding role in agriculture,turning agricultural production into green and low-carbon,carrying out specific policies and measures for lowcarbon agriculture considering local conditions and making full use of regional advantages. |
