Temporal And Spatial Variation And Prediction Of Carbon Storage In Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration

Global warming is a widespread concern of the international community.How to reduce carbon emissions and improve carbon storage capacity is one of the hot issues studied by scholars at home and abroad.The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems is crucial to global climate change,and land use change is an important factor affecting carbon storage.How to plan the land use scientifically and rationally,and prevent the destruction of the carbon sequestration ability of the ecosystem by highlighting the economic benefits and ignoring the ecological protection is the key point of the ecosystem protection and land use planning.With the development of social economy and the deterioration of natural environment,land use in Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration has changed significantly,and the change of land use pattern has further intensified the change of regional carbon storage.Research and exploration of Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration of land use change and the relationship between the ecosystem carbon,can be a deeper understanding of the ecological system,the change rule of carbon science to develop land use planning,in guarantee under the premise of the ecological environment to realize the economic sustainable development of the green,even for the development of the city to provide a higher level of future planning reference.In this paper,data of land use,accessibility factors,social economy and carbon density were collected for Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration.Firstly,the land use evolution characteristics of Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration from 2005 to 2020 were analyzed.Combining Markov model,the Dyna-CLUE model(Dynamic Conversion of Land Use and its Effects Model)was used to simulate the land use pattern of Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration in 2030 under the scenarios of economic development,ecological protection and coordinated economic and ecological development.Secondly,the annual carbon density of each land use type is predicted by grey prediction model,so as to obtain the carbon density data of each land use type in each period.Finally,using carbon module InVEST model 2005-2030,three scenarios of Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration carbon reserves,and regional development from land use types such as multi-angle in-depth analysis of the change of carbon,assess different scenarios of land use conversion,urban development and influence on carbon,Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration and to explore the sustainable development path.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:The accuracy test value of land use pattern simulated by Dyna-CLUE model in 2030 is about 83%,which can be used for carbon storage assessment.From 2005 to 2030,carbon storage and carbon density in Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration increased continuously under three scenarios,and carbon storage gradually decreased from west to east.Under the three scenarios from 2020 to 2030,the correlation trend between different regions and total carbon storage is consistent.The area of cropland and grassland is negatively correlated with total carbon storage,while the area of forest land,water area,construction land and unused land is positively correlated with total carbon storage.From 2005 to 2030,under the scenario of coordinated economic and ecological development,all 30 cities in Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration can reach the carbon emission peak before 2030,with the carbon loss reaching the minimum.