Simulation Of Land Use Change Coupled With Ecosystem Services

Ecosystem services are the basis of people’s survival and play an important role in maintaining human survival and development.The change of land use mode has brought great changes to the original surface structure,at the same time,it has affected the regional ecosystem structure and the ability of different ecosystems to provide services.It has become a hot topic to study the impact of land use change on the ecological environment and optimize the allocation of land use structure and layout.As one of the areas with the fastest economic development and the most dense population in China,the Yangtze River Delta has made a huge impact on the land use in the process of the sustainable development of urbanization,thus affecting the ecosystem services in the region.Therefore,it is of great significance to scientifically evaluate the ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Delta and explore the rational allocation of land use in the future to maintain the healthy and orderly development of the Yangtze River Delta.Based on the data of land use/cover change in 2000 and 2015,this paper comprehensively evaluates the ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Delta through invest model and identifies the important ecological areas.Combined with the evaluation results of ecosystem services,this paper simulates the land use in the Yangtze River Delta in 2030 through CLUE-S model.In order to select the best scenario,we use the trade-off collaborative method to analyze three aspects The trade-off and coordination among different ecosystem services under different scenarios,and the relevant control strategies are proposed based on the optimal scenarios.The results are as follows:(1)Through the comprehensive evaluation of various ecosystem services in the study area,it is found that the most important and important ecological areas in the Yangtze River Delta are mainly distributed in the South and west of the Yangtze River Delta,with obvious regional differences.In the past 15 years,the area of the most important and important ecological areas decreased by 4.95%and the area of the general important ecological areas increased by 9.89%.(2)The spatial distribution pattern of land use in 2030 under three scenarios in the Yangtze River Delta region is simulated and predicted by the CLUE-S model.From the simulation results of each scenario,the differences of natural evolution(S1)scenario,cultivated land protection(S2)scenario and ecological protection(S3)scenario simulation results are mainly reflected in the changes of cultivated land,forest land and construction land.Based on the invest model,five important ecosystem services under three scenarios in the Yangtze River Delta in 2030 are analyzed,and the trade-offs and synergies between services under different scenarios are obtained.Considering the rationality of land-use structure,the ecological protection(S3)scenario is in line with the future development of the Yangtze River Delta.Therefore,this study chooses the ecological protection(S3)scenario as the The optimal situation of future land use in the Yangtze River Delta.(3)In order to identify the key management and control areas in the development process of the Yangtze River Delta,this study cluster and analyze the outliers of five important ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Delta under the selected optimal land use scenario(S3),get the distribution of high and low concentration points(HL)and low and high concentration points(LH)of ecosystem services,and analyze the areas that should be focused on in the Yangtze River Delta.From the results of outlier analysis,the high and low concentration points are mainly distributed in the west of Anhui,south of Anhui and south of Zhejiang,the land use type is mainly construction land,and the surrounding vegetation coverage is high;the low and high concentration points are mainly distributed along the Yangtze River.According to the distribution of abnormal values,seven ecological land management and control areas are defined,and corresponding management and control strategies are proposed according to the development characteristics of different management and control areas.