Simulation Of Land Use Optimization In Developed Areas Based On Carbon Emission Reduction

Since the Industrial Revolution,a large amount of CO₂ has been emitted,resulting in rapid warming of the global climate system.Among them,land use change accounts for 50%of carbon emissions and contributes 24%to greenhouse effect.In the past 50 years,China’s land use carbon emissions have reached 10.6 billion tons,accounting for 12 percent of the world’s total.In particular,the urbanization and disorderly expansion in developed regions have become the main force for the surge of land use carbon emissions and the gathering place for the decline of environmental quality,thus forcing the optimization of land use structure and spatial layout to achieve the goals of carbon emission reduction and high-quality development.Therefore,how to optimize and simulate the land use structure and spatial layout in developed areas based on the perspective of carbon emission reduction has become a theoretical proposition and practical problem of low-carbon and efficient land use in China.In view of this,in accordance with the research idea of"correlation measurement-structure optimization-layout simulation",this thesis takes the economically developed area of southern Jiangsu as the empirical research area,measures the correlation between land use types and carbon emissions,reveals the optimal quantitative state of land use structure under multiple scenarios,and finally uses the CLUE-S model to simulate the corresponding spatial distribution under multiple scenarios.Comparative analysis results to determine the future land use rational development program.And put forward policy recommendations accordingly.The research results show that:（1）The correlation analysis between land use structure and carbon emissions showed that the quantity change and spatial transfer of land use structure were mainly dominated by the decrease of cultivated land and forest land,and the increase of construction land,water area and other land.The time development of carbon emission shows an obvious upward trend;The land carbon emission intensity showed a trend of continuous increase,the economic level carbon emission intensity and the population carbon emission intensity showed a trend of continuous decline.The grey correlation between land use carbon emission and construction land is the closest in southern Jiangsu,followed by water area,cultivated land,other land and forest.（2）The results of land use structure optimization under multiple objectives show that under the condition of carbon emission minimization and economic benefit maximization,construction land plays a decisive role in improving the economic benefit of southern Jiangsu,and its carbon source role is greater than that of carbon sink role.The area of construction land is positively correlated with economic benefit and negatively correlated with the reduction of carbon emission.In the case of low carbon emission and low benefit targets,medium carbon emission and medium benefit targets,and high carbon emission and high benefit targets,the reduction of carbon emission is enhanced,and the improvement of economic benefit is inhibited.（3）The CLUE-S model land use layout simulation showed that the ROC test of all regions was greater than 0.7,which met the operation requirements of the CLUE-S model.The Kappa index of model results was 0.866,and the evolution results met the accuracy requirements.According to the above research results,the land use distribution in the study area in 2030 is simulated by using the data in 2020,and the reasonable distribution of land use under each scenario is determined.To determine the more appropriate land use model in the process of economic development under the scenario of medium carbon emission and medium benefit.（4）Suggestions on low-carbon and efficient land use policies in southern Jiangsu,and design land planning in 2030 in southern Jiangsu according to the area of each region under the scenario of medium carbon emission and medium benefit;We will implement a system for protecting basic farmland and balance the occupation and compensation of basic farmland when it has to be occupied.According to the scenario simulation of medium-carbon emission and medium-benefit land use,the transformation of construction land expansion mode was accelerated,and underground construction was replaced by above-ground construction,and vertical development was replaced by horizontal development.According to the scenario of medium carbon emission and medium benefit,the area of forest land and water will be protected from temporary and drastic area fluctuations.We will strengthen the construction of intelligent sharing platforms,strengthen the construction of land information collection infrastructure,and follow the trend of regional area changes in real time.