The Evolution Simulation And Driving Factors Of Carbon Sink In Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration

With the advancement of urbanization,the "carbon peak in 2030,carbon neutrality by 2060" goal has a deeper impact in the field of ecological planning of urban agglomerations,carbon neutrality has become an important issue in the planning of urban agglomerations.As the main carrier of future economic development,changes in the landscape pattern of urban agglomerations have an important impact on the carbon sink capacity of regional ecological space.To explore the changes in the spatial pattern of land and carbon sinks in the ecological space of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration under different future development scenarios,to identify the evolution of carbon sinks in the ecological space of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration and to understand the main influencing factors driving the evolution of carbon sinks at the regional scale,based on land use data from 2000,2010 and 2020,the land use change in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration was analysed and the Geo SOS-FLUS model was used to predict the ecological land use pattern from 2030 to 2060 under three different scenarios of ecological priority,cropland priority and urban priority.And the In VEST model and the standard deviation ellipse method were used to describe changes in carbon sinks in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2020,and the In VEST model was used to analyse changes in the spatial distribution of ecospatial carbon stocks under various scenarios in 2060.Finally,the ordinary least square regression analysis technique and the geographically weighted regression analysis technique were used to identify the main drivers of change in land carbon sink in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration,providing a reference for the future development decisions and planning of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration.The results show that: 1.Under the premise of population transfer to cities and towns,the adoption of the ecology priority development approach can balance the expansion of urban development better with the need for resource and environmental protection of ecological space,and the adoption of the urban-first approach will significantly reduce the carbon sink capacity.2.The slope,population density,river distance and elevation are the most important drivers of change in the ecological space carbon sink pattern of urban clusters,and the expansion of urban space is the main cause of change.3.The development space of ecological space under the urban priority scenario has been reduced,and under this premise,it is necessary to formulate policy measures as soon as possible to curb the expansion of urban space.