| As a major source of CO2,NOx,VOCs,and other air pollutants,the vehicle is one of the critical areas to achieve "reduction of Pollution and CO2" and "co-control of PM2.5 and O3" during the 14th Five Year Plan Period in China.With serious pollution of vehicle exhaust,realizing the clean development of vehicles has become the key content to be solved urgently in the work of reducing pollution and carbon in Henan Province.Thus,this study identified the patterns of air pollutants and CO2 by the building of vehicular emission inventory,evaluated the potential of policy measures,and further analyzed the environmental and health benefits.The principal innovations and conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the advanced emission factors by surveys of the local vehicular activities level in Henan province,the "bottom-up" method was used to develop a 1km×1km resolution pollutants and CO2 emission inventory in Henan in 2019.Thereinto,LDGV and HDDT were the major sources of pollutants and CO2.Vehicles with emission standards of national Ⅲ and Ⅳ became the main source of pollutants and CO2.In spatial,vehicular emission was discovered a significant correlation with roads.Areas of high emission strength were concentrated in expressways and urban centers with dense roads.(2)Emission reduction potential of policy measures such as eliminating old vehicles,promoting new energy vehicles,adjusting the transportation structure and developing public transport were quantitatively evaluated by prediction of vehicular stock based on an elastic coefficient method.Results showed that vehicular stock will reach 28.65 million in 2025,an increase of 59%over 2019.Under the baseline scenario,VOCs and CO2 emissions increased significantly by 18.2%and 52.9%respectively.While the emissions of NOx,PM10 and PM2.5 decreased by 12.2%,14.7%and 14.0%respectively due to the improvement of vehicle emission standards in the baseline scenario.Among policies and measures,promoting new energy vehicles has the best effect on the emission reduction of various pollutants and CO2;eliminating old vehicles,adjusting transportation structure and promoting public transport have obvious emission reduction effects on different species respectively.Under the integrated scenario,the emission of NOx,PM10 and PM2.5 are about 30%lower than that in 2019;the growth trend of VOCs and CO2 has also been significantly curbed that emission of VOCs is quite close that in 2019,with an increase of only 0.5%;CO2 emissions increased by only 27.5%.(3)The environmental effect of vehicle pollution reduction is quantitatively evaluated through the establishment of the WRF-CMAQ air quality model in Henan Province is established.Compared to 2019,the annual average concentration of PM2.5 decreased by 0.11μg·m-3 with a decrease of about 0.2%in the baseline scenario;however,some areas in northern and Shangqiu have increased slightly.Under the integrated scenario,the annual average concentration of PM2.5 decreased by about 0.52μg·m-3,approximately a decrease of 0.8%;the annual average concentration of PM2.5 significantly decreased more than 0.75μg·m-3 in Zhengzhou,Luoyang,and most of Nanyang.(4)Based on high-resolution population data,concentration exposure data and GEMM environmental health analysis model,environmental health benefits of vehicular emission reduction in Henan Province were quantitatively analyzed.Under the baseline scenario and integrated scenario,149 and 600 deaths will be avoided respectively due to the decrease of annual average concentration PM2.5.Health risks in central and Northern Henan Province are higher,especially in densely populated urban areas such as Zhengzhou and Luoyang.In summary,to improve air quality and protect human health furthermore,Henan province should realize vehicular cleaner development through limit growth of the fuel vehicle stock and gradually phase them out by encouraging and guiding based on implementing emissions control policies and measures. |
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