Environmental Impact Analysis And Policy Effect Assessment Of The Global Shipbreaking Industry

With the rapid development of economic globalization and international trade,the global ship demand and the shipbreaking industry have increased rapidly.However,the shipbreaking processes may accidentally release pollutants and cause severe environmental and ecological issues.Besides,the shipbreaking industry has kept shifting to lower-income countries,leading to severe environmental inequality.International organizations have launched a series of conventions to regulate shipbreaking activities to control the severe environmental impacts of the shipbreaking industry.However,loopholes in those regulations will be used to evade increasingly stringent environmental protection requirements.Therefore,the pollution control of shipbreaking and the effectiveness of the related environmental laws and regulations have become critical issues for the global shipping industry.It is necessary to study the ship dismantling and scrapping trends,analyze the pollutants emission and evaluate the convention’s effectiveness,thus supporting the green transition policy decisions of the shipbreaking industry.To solve the above problems,this study conducts a comprehensive assessment of resource cycle-environmental pollution-policy assessment in the shipbreaking industry:(1)The historical trend of global ship scrapping was analyzed.The global change assessment model and dynamic material flow method were employed to project the ship scrapping amount of different ship types(2020-2050).(2)Based on shipbreaking pollutants emission factors and ship scrapping projections,a time series(1990-2050)pollutants emission inventory by ship and hazardous wastes types was developed in the significant shipbreaking countries in South Asia(Bangladesh,India,and Pakistan),with uncertainty analysis.(3)The effectiveness of various ship breaking-related conventions was evaluated by statistical analysis of historical ship scrapping amount(1990-2019),then the potential pollutants emission reduction was estimated under different policy scenariosThe main conclusions of this study are:(1)the ship scrapping volume showed a trend of fluctuating growth between 1990-2019.From 2020 to 2050,the scrapping volume of ships increased rapidly.By 2050,The ship scrapping amount will reach up to 75-95 million tons per year,which is 5-7 times compared to 2019.(2)The total pollutants emission from Bangladesh,India and Pakistan has increased from 10,746 tons in 1990 to 69,622 tons in 2019,with an uncertainty of 23.80%-31.85%,and the total emissions will reach 307 thousand gross tons in 2050.(3)Historical policy analysis shows that the existing global governance of the shipbreaking industry has failed and still kept expanding unsustainably.Improving existing policies will significantly reduce pollutant emissions from the shipbreaking industry in the future,and the estimated total emissions from 2020 to 2050 may reduce up to 92%and 79%under the EU convention and the Hong Kong Convention scenarios,respectively.This thesis conducted a trends analysis of global ship scrapping,developed a detailed emissions inventory of the shipbreaking industry,and evaluated the effectiveness of relevant shipbreaking conventions and the potential reduction under improved policy scenarios.It can provide data and a theoretical basis to support pollutants emission reduction strategies and promote sustainable green transition of the shipbreaking industry in the future.