Study On Determination And Analysis Method Of Civil Aviation Black Swan Event

In recent years,in the global complex and changing environmental background,various unsafe and risk events occur frequently.Among them,black swan event has gradually attracted the attention of scholars due to its characteristics such as many influencing subjects,complex event development and extremely serious consequences.Traditionally,scholars mainly assume that an event is a black swan event based on experience,and then qualitatively carry out relevant impact analysis.At present,there is a lack of research on the determination methods of black swan events.At the same time,the influence degree of a single field is usually considered,which cannot fully analyze the black swan event.Therefore,this paper first proposes a quantitative method to determine the black swan event by constructing the impact network.At the same time,from the perspective of scenarioresponse,the analysis method of scenario deduction for black swan event is proposed.After that,this paper carried out two examples to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the determination method and the analysis method.The main research conclusions are as follows: The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows: through the construction of impact network method,the civil aviation black swan event and other emergencies can be reasonably distinguished,and typical cases are selected to verify the method.The verification results are consistent with the qualitative determination results reported by authoritative institutions and academic researches at the present stage,which proves the effectiveness and feasibility of the method.According to the scenario-response theory,a scenario inference model was established for the evolution analysis of the crash emergency with black swan property,and the 737MAX8 event was used as an example for analysis.The analysis and calculation of the model can assist decision makers to grasp the law of event evolution and provide a basis for relevant subjects to understand the relationship between event evolution and emergency response.