Study On Ecological Footprint And Population Carrying Capacity Of Five Provinces In Northwest Chin

The northwestern region is an important national security barrier,ecological barrier and strategic rear of our country.The area of the Northwest region accounts for about 30%of the country,but its population only accounts for 7%of the country,and the population is relatively scattered and the ethnic composition is complex.The ecological environment in the Northwest is fragile and the economic development is relatively backward.The improvement of people’s living standards depends on the natural resources of the Northwest,and is also restricted by the natural environment of the Northwest.Coordinating the relationship between man and land in the Northwest has become a key factor in achieving sustainable development in the Northwest.Human development is inseparable from the material,energy,and circulation support provided by the ecosystem.The excessive demand of the population for natural resources will weaken the carrying capacity of the environment.Many scholars have conducted related researches on China’s population carrying capacity under the constraints of resources and environment.The ecological footprint method,as a method of quantitatively analyzing human demand for nature and the supply of the ecosystem itself,has been widely used by scholars to analyze population carrying capacity and evaluate regional ecological environment since it was proposed.The ecological footprint method converts various indicators into intuitively comparable land area"global hectares",visually evaluates the ecological environment pressure of a country or region,and provides decision makers with guidance on regional planning and population policies.This article uses academic software such as Stata and ArcGIS to calculate the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the five northwestern provinces and regions from 2000 to 2018 using the ecological footprint method to obtain the ecological deficit or surplus in the northwestern region;based on the ARIMA model,analyzed the time change trend of the ecological footprint in Northwest China and measured the population capacity of the area;analyze the spatial differentiation and spatial correlation of ecological footprint according to the data of each city;then,based on the IPAT model,a spatial panel model and a geographically weighted regression model were established to investigate the impact of population and economic factors on the ecological footprint of the Northwest China.The results show that:From statistical analysing,the ecological footprint of biological resources in the five northwest provinces has basically maintained a stable trend over the years,and the carbon ecological footprint has increased rapidly.The total ecological footprint has increased from 26.7486 million hectares to 140.7221 million hectares from 2000 to 2018,and the per capita ecological footprint has increased from 2946.37 square meters to 13690.25 square meters per person.The ecological carrying capacity of Northwest China increased from 102.5468 million hectares in 2000 to 110.6116 million hectares in 2018,with little change.Cultivated land,grassland and woodland were the three land types with the highest ecological carrying capacity in turn.The overall ecological surplus of Northwest China has turned into ecological deficit,and only Gansu and Qinghai provinces have a small ecological surplus by 2018.Northern Shaanxi,northwest Xinjiang,North Central Gansu and Ningxia are the regions with high ecological footprint.From empirical analysing,the global spatial correlation of ecological footprint is not significant,while the local spatial autocorrelation of ecological footprint in central Shaanxi,southern Gansu and Eastern Qinghai shows low oligomeric characteristics.According to the forecast,the population capacity of Northwest China will be about 67.3192 million by 2025.The ecological footprint of Northwest China is positively affected by the added value of the tertiary industry and the per capita GDP.The improvement of the utilization efficiency of ecological resources will reduce the total ecological footprint,and the ecological footprint will be spatially affected by the exogenous variables of adjacent regions.The value-added of the first industry and the third industry have a positive effect on the ecological footprint and increase from east to west,while the value-added of the second industry increases from west to East,but the coefficient changes little.Finally,based on the research results,the following suggestions are put forward.Improve the ecological carrying capacity and strengthen the supply of ecological products.Optimize the industrial structure and energy consumption structure,and take multiple measures to effectively reduce carbon emissions.Keep the ecological red line in Northwest China and keep the ecological management in Northwest China.Guide and regulate reasonably the flow of population to ensure the new changes in the population structure.