Evaluation Of Ecological Carrying Capacity Based On Ecological Footprint Model In Harein

The land resources are irreplaceable and important natural resources. It is part of the environment, and other natural environment resources and the carrier of economic and social resources. The land ecological carrying capacity is to a certain extent reflects regional economic and social development and ecological balance and the coordination between the contradictory relationships. It is have direct effect for the land utilization structure and layout. In this paper, the land ecological carrying capacity of research can judge the current land use structure of land use of strength and pollution degree of study the influence of regional land capacity. And it can be quantitative reflect the current regional land use of ecological environment level of stress. The author in order to alleviate land ecological pressure, promote social economic and ecological environment to provide reference for the harmonious development of countermeasures.This paper selects the Harbin as the study area. The author calculated the ecological footprint and the land of ecological carrying capacity of the city of Harbin, comprehensive evaluation of ecological surplus or deficit in the city of Harbin in the past10years and GDP ecological footprint. In the study basis, the author gray theory model GM (1,1) from the time dimension forecast analysis to Angle the ecological footprint and the land ecological carrying capacity and the ecology in2020in Harbin city. Combining the current development trend in Harbin, and improve the bearing capacity of land ecosystem from Harbin put forward the corresponding countermeasure. In the emphasis on economic development and at the same time also have to pay attention to the land ecological carrying capacity, and pay attention to the social development in existence problem of unbalanced. In the same city expected the research of the method and the reference. The results of the study show that in2001-2010years the ecological footprint of Harbin present trend accelerated year by year, the economic development is good in Harbin city. In2001-2010years the land ecological carrying capacity in Harbin city is also rising, explain to land ecological protection Harbin has obtained a certain result. But the land ecological Harbin bearing capacity but can’t satisfy the ecological footprint of Harbin, ecological deficit has been in the state, and there is-a rising trend of ecological deficit, the ecological situation is not optimistic in Harbin city. The GDP ecological footprint results of Harbin city can be seen that in near10years the science and technology in the rapid economic development, industrial development pattern and the industrial structure is to sustainable development model transformation, we can see that the government had already spent a lot of Harbin efforts to improve the ecological environment of Harbin city at present and the industrial structure. But because the ecological environment too much before wipe, industrial backward in technology, environment pollution is too big, so want to quickly change for the sustainable development of ecological city is not realistic. The prediction results can be seen that by2020the ecological footprint of Harbin city per capita was2.61, and the same year per capita land ecological carrying capacity of the predicted results are1.85, it have1.89difference between, Harbin city land per capita is102.04%of ecological carrying capacity. That is in Harbin city ecological productive area all reasonable use of cases, there need to be other regions and certain resources to meet the people’s living and consumption of Harbin. At the same time, the development of.Harbin city will be in long-term unsustainable development state, people give land ecological pressure is more and more big, the ecological deficit will continue to increase, people consume resources would be greater than the number of Harbin city land ecological carrying capacity, Harbin city land ecological environment there will be irreversible damage. So people must take effective measures to prevent the occurrence of all this, and realize the ecological, economic, social, Harbin city of sustainable development.