Research On Incentive Policy System Dynamics Simulation Of Prefabricated Building Under Low-Carbon Perspective

The world’s current global approach has undergone carbon reduction operations,and the industry’s "double carbon" goal is far from the industry.The huge construction industry is an important position in the field of carbon reduction.The refabricated building is an important carrier in the process of low-carbonized sustainable development in the construction industry,but its development market has insufficient bulge,incentive policy is a valid path for the development of difficulties in the lowcarbon large environment.The uncertainty and complexity of incentive policy have increased the difficulty of observing the implementation of policies.The development path and quantitative analysis policy implementation efficacy between complex systems in complex systems is imminent.The actual development process of refabricated buildings is a complicated,dynamically interactive,a feedback system,such as a multi-factor of the policy,which involves many main body,complex relationship,has studied research on assembled building policies It is difficult to adapt to the needs of the dynamic realistic environment of the installed building under low carbon view.This paper uses system kinetic methods to determine the five major subsystems of policies,carbon emissions,economics,technology,markets from low-carbon perspectives,and to draw the factor circuit map and stock flow graph,and build assembled architectural excitation.The policy system dynamics model predicts the development trend of refabricated building in Tianjin,and simulates the implementation effect of various incentive policies to filter the sensitivity policy and propose policy integrated regulation programs on this basis.The results show that:(1)In the case of maintaining the existing policy intensity,Tianjin newly-installed building demand is in a gentle rising trend,and the total supply of building buildings after 2022 The amount began to have a sharp rise,but the total demand for refabricated building is still in a stable rise,and the carbon emission reduction effect is not significant.(2)The sensitivity of the four policies of development tax rate,house purchase loan interest rate,plot ratio and development loan interest rate is good,and the incentive effect of the whole system is better.The new house purchase tax rate and financial subsidy policies are relatively sensitive to the development of prefabricated buildings in Tianjin.(3)When considering policy incentive cost,policy portfolio program 2(development loan interest rate is 10%,the development tax rate regulation is 25%,10% of the purchase loan interest rate regulation;5% of the volume rate regulation)Compare policy portfolio scheme one(development 50% of the loan interest rate,50% of the development tax rate,50% of the purchase loan interest rate;the volume rate regulation 5%)The cost of excitation cost is lower and the amount of carbon emission reduction in newly-refabricated buildings is greater,and the assembly The development of architectures also has a strong promotion.Finally,according to the simulation results,some suggestions for optimizing incentive policies of prefabricated buildings from the perspective of low carbon are put forward from both sides of supply and demand.