Prediction Of The Potential Distribution Of Moschus Moschiferus And Hydropotes Inermis In The Eastern Mountain Area Of Jilin Province Based On Niche Model

The influence of climate change on the suitability distribution of species is becoming more and more significant.It is very important to determine the suitability relationship between environmental conditions and species and predict the potential suitability distribution area of species for habitat monitoring and restoration.Wild animals should consider many factors when choosing habitats,including the access to food resources and the avoidance of predation risk.According to the predicted results,the suitability evaluation can be carried out to implement the corresponding protection measures.Analysis and prediction under the condition of climate change is an efficient measure to evaluate the potential suitable distribution changes of species with low cost and high efficiency.It can prepare for the suitable distribution changes of wild animals in advance,so as to improve the conservation efficiency of species.This article takes Moschus moschiferous,a national level I protected terrestrial animal,and Hydrootes inermis,a national level II protected terrestrial animal,as the research objects in the eastern mountainous areas of Jilin Province.Based on environmental variables such as climate variables,terrain variables,vegetation types,and human interference,Max Ent model and Biomod2 combination model based on R language are used to predict the centroid movement trajectory and distribution area changes in potential suitable and distribution areas.The potential suitable distribution pattern of Moschus moschiferous and Hydrootes inermis in the eastern mountainous area of Jilin Province was scientifically analyzed from multiple perspectives,such as the response to climate change,single and combined forecasting methods,and analysis of dominant environmental variables.Finally,the potential suitable distribution range of Moschus moschiferous and Hydrootes inermis in the eastern mountainous area of Jilin Province was obtained based on the ecological niche model.The main research conclusions are as follows:In Biomod2 model,artificial neural network（ANN）,generalized additive model（GAM）,generalized linear model（GLM）,generalized propulsive model（GBM）,flexible discriminant analysis（FDA）,multiple adaptive regression spline（MARS）,surface distribution differentiation chamber（SRE）,random forest（RF）and other single models were compared According to the ROC,KAPPA,TSS and other evaluation indexes of EM,the accuracy and stability of EM are the highest.Under the current climate,the predicted potential suitable distribution areas of Moschus moschiferus is mainly located in Hadamen Township of Hunchun City,Fuxing Town of Wangqing County and Changbai County of Baishan City.The potential suitable range of Hydrootes inermis is mainly located in the east and west of Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture and the south of Tonghua City.Under the future climate conditions,the high suitable distribution area of the two species predicted by the combination model showed a decreasing trend,while the area of the unsuitable distribution area showed an expanding trend.The potential suitable area of Moschus moschiferus ranged from-1.18%to-62.25%.The potential suitable area of Hydrootes inermis ranged from-56.25%to 9.82%.Under the current and future climate conditions,the AUC values of the training and test data sets of Moschus moschiferus in Max Ent model were 0.976 and 0.985,respectively,and that of Hydrootes inermis training and test data sets were 0.969 and 0.957,respectively.Under the current climate conditions,the potential suitable distribution area of Moschus moschiferus is mainly concentrated in Hunchun City,Wangqing County,Antu County and Dunhua City of Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture,and Changbai County and Fusong County of Baishan City.The mass center of the potential suitable distribution area is located in the northwest part of Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture.The potential suitable distribution area of Hydrootes inermis is mainly located in the northwest and southeast of Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture and the south of Tonghua City,etc.The potential suitable distribution area mass center is located in the northwest of Baishan City.With the warming of climate,the potential high suitable range of Moschus moschiferus and Hydrootes inermis decreased.The results showed that the main environmental variables affecting the suitable distribution of Moschus moschiferus were the coniferous broad-width mixed forest and Bio10-mean temperature in the warmest quarter,and the probability of the mean temperature in the warmest quarter reaching the highest distribution and stabilizing at 9℃.Hydrootes inermis prefers herbaceous mulch at low elevation and gentle terrain.The potential suitable distribution area of Moschus moschiferus and Hydrootes inermis were negatively correlated with CO₂ emissions from typical concentration paths.With the increase of CO₂ emission concentration with climate warming,the potential high suitable distribution area of Moschus moschiferus in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture and Baishan City decreased by the 2050s and 2070s.The area of potential low suitable distribution was partially expanded,while the potential high suitable distribution of Moschus moschiferus was significantly reduced in Hunchun,Wangqing,Antu,Dunhua,and Changbai Korean Autonomous County and Fusong County of Baishan City.In the 2050s and2070s of Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture,the area of Hydrootes inermis high suitable distribution decreased,while the area of insuitable distribution increased overall.Under the background of future climate change,the potential suitable distribution area of Moschus moschiferus and Hydrootes inermis species will continue to increase in temperature,while the area of suitable habitat will gradually shrink and be fragmented.Under the condition of climate change,the ecological corridor should be planned in advance for the high suitable distribution area of Moschus moschiferus and Hydrootes inermis,and the existing suitable distribution area should be protected timely and effectively.