Prediction And Simulation Of Distribution Of Cinnnmamummigao Based On MaxEnt Model And GIS

Climate is the decisive factor of species distribution,and the distribution of species is themost distinct response to climate.We can apply species distributionmodels to Predict and simulate distribution scientifically,which is beneficial to the establishment of reasonable and scientificmode of planting andmanagement,and provide data support and theoretical basis for production of planting industry.migao?Cinnammummigao H.W.Li?belongs to Lauraceae Cinnamomum evergreen trees,The mature fruit is one of the ten herbal medicines and it is developed as the ethnic Chinese herbal medicines meaningful in recent years in Guizhou Province.In this paper,based on distribution of Cinnnmamummigao through the filed survey and herbarium search,and used max En model and GIS to predict distribution of Cinnnmamummigao in different periods.meanwhile speculated its' quaternary glacial refugia and divided suitable districts,statistics and analysisied correlative environmental factors.Theresults of the study were summarized as follows:?1?The highly suitable distribution and suitable distribution ofCinnnmamummigao is western Guangxi province,southern Guizhou province,eastern Yunnan province and few part area of Guangdong province,the area are 5.0685?3.0847?2.1216?0.0796?square kilometer?.At the same time,AUC value of training and test data are 0.992 and 0.993,indicate the prediction is excellent.?2?Domain environmental factors that influence prediction result are texture,bio₃,bio-₁7,bio₁8 and altitude,the biggest environmental factors are soil and temperature factors,account for 63.1 percentage in all contributions,then are precipitation and altitude factors.?3?According to the known suitable distribution result,combining specific geographical conditions with chemical study,divide suitable districts of Cinnnmamummigao.mainly divide into three suitable districts as follow : planting region of warm and wet Hongshui river,planting region of subtropical southern and north Panjiang and Subtropical warming and wet Planting region of Yujing and Liushaoshan.?4?The change of contraction and expansion of Cinnnmamummigao between last interglacial period to last glacial period and last glacial to Holocene indicated that its' suitable distribution have close connection with global climate change.meanwhile speculate the possible quaternary glacial refugia are located next to Hengduan mountains region and Nanling mountains region.?5?In the future under the same emission scenarios and different periods,unsuitable distribution and three class suitable distribution of Cinnnmamummigao are wax and wane;on the contrary condition,there is also a correlation between four class distributions,and does not affect the overall trend of change.The area change of highly suitable distribution and suitable distribution of Cinnnmamummigao have high consistency between current to 2050 and 2050 to2070,the trend is from increase and then decrease.Unsuitable distribution of Cinnnmamummigao change is negatively correlated with the previous,its' area is increase between current to 2050 and then decrease between 2050 to 2070.