Prediction Of Suitable Distribution Of Elaeagnus Mollis In Shanxi Province And Responses To Climate Change

Climate change has been listed as one of the major threats to global biodiversity.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the effects of climate change on the distribution of endangered species in protecting species diversity and maintaining ecological functional integrity.Elaeagnus mollis is a rare and endangered plant in China,which is only distributed in the southern of Shanxi Province and Hu County,Shaanxi Province.Shanxi Province is its main concentration distribution,so the protection of Elaeagnus mollis should be paid more attention.On the basis of collecting the data of species distribution and environmental factors roundly,this paper used Maxent model to predict the potential suitable region of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province under current and future climate scenarios.Then the distribution range and spatial position of the potential suitable region of Elaeagnus mollis were discussed in the future climate change.The main conclusions are as follows:The longitude and latitude range of Elaeagnus mollis potential suitable area in the current climate was 35.1°N—36.3°N?110.5°E—112.5°E,which was predicted by Maxent model.Elaeagnus mollis is mainly located in two regions,the southern of Lvliang Mountain and Zhongtiao Mountain.The main environmental variables affecting the Elaeagnus mollis distribution were BIO15 precipitation seasonality(48.6%),BIO7 temperature annual range(17.1%),BIO1annualmeantemperature(9.9%),BIO3isothermality(7.3%),PH-TpHtopsoil(6.4%)andBIO12annual precipitation(5.5%),whose total contribution rate reached 94.8%.Under different climate change scenarios in the future,the distribution range of the suitable region of Zhongtiao Mountain showed a trend of overall contraction to the regional center.While the distribution range of the suitable region of Lvliang Mountain showed a trend of first shrinking in the 2050s and then small recovery in the 2070s.Moreover,the distribution range of high suitable region would remain relatively stable under climate change,while the distribution range of moderate and low suitable regions would be more sensitive to climate change.Elaeagnus mollis suitable area in current and future has been counted and found that:under different climate scenarios,total suitable area of Elaeagnus mollis will shrink in 2070s,and the largest reduction occurred under the RCP4.5 scenario,by 676 km~2(9%of the current suitable area).However,by comparing the suitable area in 2050s and 2070s,there will be different change trends in 2050s and 2070s under three representative concentration pathways.In RCP2.6 the suitable area will firstly increase and then decrease,while in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,it will response sensitively and first decrease and then increase.Based on the spatial identification of the boundary positions and the suitable regional centers in different periods,we can conclude that by the2070s,the spatial position of potential suitable regions will move in different degrees relative to the current position.Two suitable regions will show different responses to climate change.The one of the southern of Lvliang Mountain will move south slightly in latitude direction,and the other of Zhongtiao Mountain will migrate to high altitude in elevation direction.The migration distance is the largest in the high concentration scenario.This paper aimed to provide theoretical guidance and suggestions for Elaeagnus mollis rational protection and scientific management in the future by predicting the potential suitable region of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province and its response to future climate change.