Research On Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment And Influencing Factors Of Farmers

Frequent meteorological disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic have seriously affected all aspects of human society.Although a large number of studies have taken COVID-19 into account in the comprehensive risk assessment of farmers,they all take them as a background and lack of integrating them into variables into the evaluation system.The Loess Plateau is not only one of the regions with the most serious soil erosion in the world,but also one of the most sensitive regions in the global climate change.Meteorological disasters occur frequently,leading to the increasingly serious grain production reduction in the region.[] In addition,the COVID-19 epidemic is also threatening the steady development of the region.Meteorological disasters and COVID-19,as two different types of exposure,will have an impact on farmers’ livelihood vulnerability and household risk.Therefore,it is crucial to carry out the risk assessment and management of meteorological disasters under the dual exposure background of meteorological disasters and COVID-19 in the Loess Plateau region.Based on the risk assessment of meteorological disasters and livelihood vulnerability assessment in the background of dual exposure,this study constructed a risk assessment framework under dual exposure,and explored the adaptive strategy of risk management and the sustainable development model of farmers in the Loess Plateau.Firslyt,based on the meteorological disaster data of Shaanxi Province,Shanxi Province and Gansu Province from 1990 to 2019 and 497 field survey data of the Loess Plateau,this study uses the coupling degree model and Bayesian network to analyze the relationship between various meteorological disasters,uses the weighted average method to calculate the risk of multiple meteorological disasters,and uses K-means clustering method to cluster them.Secondly,the entropy method and CRITIC method are used to evaluate the vulnerability of farmers’ livelihoods from the three aspects of exposure,sensitive and adaptability,and analyze the differences of exposure,sensitive and adaptability of farmers in different types and regions.Finally,the comprehensive risk is calculated by referring to the international general risk assessment formula "risk= hazard * vulnerability",and the impact of livelihood capital on the risk level of different types of farmers is identified by using multiple ordered logistic regression,and the contribution of significant factors is decomposed by using the Shapley value decomposition method.The results show that:(1)Within Shaanxi,Shanxi and Gansu provinces,the intensity of wind,hail and flood has a trend of increasing year by year,the intensity of drought has a trend of weakening,and the intensity of frost disaster tends to be stable.(2)Through network analysis,it can be seen that six meteorological disasters,including flood,drought,freezing disaster,continuous rain,wind disaster and hail,will affect the proportion of production reduction;In addition,the occurrence of one disaster will also have an impact on the occurrence of other disasters,that is,there is a complex correlation between disasters.(3)In the total sample,non-agricultural farmers account for 54.9%,part-time farmers account for 21.3%,and pure agricultural farmers account for 23.9%.The comparative results of exposure,sensitivity and adaptability show that the exposure level and adaptability level of part-time farmers are the highest,and the sensitivity level of non-agricultural farmers is the highest.(4)The overall risk level of farmers is negatively affected by the per capita cultivated land area,cultivated land quality,residential land area,agricultural income and non-agricultural income,while the family size has a significant positive impact on the risk level.(5)Under the background of double exposure of COVID-19 epidemic and meteorological disasters,the influencing factors of risk levels of different types of farmers are heterogeneous.(6)Under the double exposure,the contribution of material capital to the risk level of overall farmers and non-agricultural farmers is the largest,followed by financial capital;In addition to physical capital,natural capital has the largest contribution to the risk impact of part-time farmers;Human capital has the greatest contribution to the risk impact of pure agricultural farmers.Based on the above conclusions,this study puts forward the following policy recommendations:(1)Popularization+promotion to help farmers understand disaster characteristics,disaster relations and other knowledge in depth.(2)Develop the tertiary industry,formulate preferential investment policies,and encourage farmers to diversify their livelihoods.(3)Improve rural public service facilities and enhance farmers’ ability to resist risks.(4)Increase capital investment in rural areas,and formulate management measures that suit local conditions and vary from person to person.